Saturday, August 24, 2013

Q&A: A State that Orbits another State

Question:
In the book, Political Concepts on page 24 in the official English edition dated 1425 AH 2005 CE, on the subject of the international situation we find:
"... As regarding the state that revolves in the orbit of another one, it is the one that is linked in its foreign policy with another state based on common interest and not as subordination. The example to this is Japan with America, Australia with each of America and Britain, Canada with each of America, Britain and France, and Turkey (currently) with each of America and Britain."
The question is whether the state orbiting around another state can detach its foreign policy from the foreign policy of the major state around which it revolves? For example, can Turkey exit from America's foreign policy in the case of issues such as Syria?
Answer:
The state that revolves around another state may exit its orbit in parts of its foreign policy because the relation between the two states is based on interest rather than being one of dependency. Hence it seeks its interest, but it should be noted that there are factors of influence and pressure used by the major state, which prevent the orbiting state from partially exiting its orbit. The strength or weakness of this prohibition depends on the extent of the impact that the major state has stretched out on the ruling class in the orbiting state. If the impact of the major state is strong, then even the partial detachment of the orbiting state is extremely difficult. The smaller the impact of the major state on the orbiting state is, the more the latter will be able to detach from the foreign policy of the major state be it in one fraction or more. We will clarify this using some examples, to eventually conclude the issue with the subject of Turkey:
1. Japan:
The system of governance, the internal situation as well as the state's institutions are stable, such that Japan can partially depart from the foreign policy, and it revolves around America without the politicians fearing for their own destiny. However, the constraints imposed by the United States at the end of the Second World War, such as the prohibition from developing its strategic weapons, especially the nuclear weapons, as well as security agreements imposed on it ... along with U.S. pressure on Japan's economy, all of that created America's influence in Japanese politics and its impact on the ruling class and the political parties, especially the Liberal Democratic Party, which ruled Japan since 1955 continuously for 54 years, sustained only during the short period in which the Socialist Party ruled, which did not exceed months, and it remained in power until its defeat in the 2009 elections. Then the Liberal Democratic Party with its two combinations returned to power at the end of last year, where it won the general parliamentary elections on 12/15/2012. All of that created an interconnection between American interest and the interest of Japan, as well as a strong American influence on Japanese politics, to an extent that the one in power became afraid of moving in the opposite direction of where America wants him to move or of partially deviating from the orbit in which Japan revolved around America. Therefore the one in power feared that America could raise the oppositional parties against him or that it might raise economic problems to affect the Japanese economy, causing his government to quake or even fall. Hence Japan has not left the American orbit in which it revolves in the fraction of foreign policy, but it was distancing itself from active participation in some of the issues of American foreign policy which had less effect... For example, Japan refused to participate in the war against Iraq in 1991, and it confined its participation in the occupation of Iraq in 2003 to a symbolical one, where Japan merely participated with one thousand soldiers in support of the U.S. forces in the search for what they called "weapons of mass destruction". Nevertheless they provided support for the United States amounting to $13 billion to repay the war expenses. Therefore Japan exited its orbited in some fractions which do not carry a strong impact...
2. Canada:
The rulers of Canada cater to the interests of their country and goes along with this state or another depending on what they achieve, or they distance themselves from proceeding with a certain state when there is no benefit for them. Nevertheless the three nations, America, Britain and France, have an influence on Canada, and they are the states that Canada orbits in Canadian foreign policy, according to factors different from Japan, since Canada is not restricted by military or security agreements ... But there are other factors which link Canada to Britain and its Commonwealth, since half of the Canadian population are of British ancestry. Canada is linked to France through the francophone affiliation, because approximately 16% of the population is of French ancestry. Canada is adjacent to America and it shares the longest unprotected border in the world, such that the two states seem to be intertwined, and they share a free trade as the largest trading partners. They participate in a free trade agreement since 1988 and Mexico joined in 1992. Canada also joined the Organization of American States in 1990, which stands under the influence of the United States.
Because these factors are less effective than the restrictions and conventions imposed on Japan ... Canada is more able than Japan to partially exit the orbit in which it revolves around the three states. Canada maintains official relations with Cuba, which did not participate the United States in its embargoes or boycotts. It refused to participate alongside the United States and Britain in the war on Iraq in 2003, and held a position closer to the French position ... Nevertheless Canada did not detach in the greater issues affecting international politics, and therefore we see that it has been involved in the war in Afghanistan alongside American and other NATO countries, since Canada is a founding member of NATO. In the past, Canada contributed in the form of its president in support of the United States in the Korean War 1950 - 1953. In the past, Canada participated in World Wars I and II alongside Britain ... Therefore Canada orbits these three countries due to the above factors, but the impact of those states is not strong enough to prevent Canada from disengagement in fractions of the foreign policy of the three countries. Yet Canada does not detach in the important international policy issues...
3. Turkey
America's influence on bringing the ruling class to power is strong, so Erdogan feels that he cannot reach power and reinforce his authority internally except with America's help, so he sees that his fate is tied to America which has great control in Turkey so that it is able to command the government, rulers, judges, economy, army and security forces. Whereby the Turkish economy is dependent on American support by way of opening the door to loans and economic lenience to Turkey, and examples of this lenience are: the absence of pressure from the International Monetary Fund on Erdogan's government as was on the government of his predecessor Ecevit, so the IMF brought his government down... and the absence of the demand of the lenders' in the team of the foreign banks demand to schedule the accumulating debt on Turkey... And that American international rating agencies like Standard & Poors and from Moody's to Fitch have not given negative points to the Turkish economy, instead these agencies have given positive points... and by this the road to investment from abroad is made easier for Turkey, and foreign companies are encouraged to invest in Turkey. Also America is behind the achievements realized by Erdogan in the army of striking the agents of England a strong blow and bringing men who support him in his Presidency who are linked to America, and likewise the achievements that he realized with regards to controlling the judiciary, all of this happened with America's help. And America helped on the inside with security and the Kurdish question, for America was behind the acceptance of the Kurdistan Workers Party of the peace plan and the halt of the acts of insurgency, and that is because Ocalan is one of America's agents and the Peace and Democracy Party follow Ocalan's track. Therefore internal stability occurred by the cooperation of other agents and friends of America in other parties, organizations and agencies.
And therefore America's influence on the government in Turkey is strong, and consequently Turkey's stepping out of line of any American foreign policy is extremely difficult, and we will present a few of the facts to clarify how Erdogan is bound to American foreign policy:
A- Erdogan, before the Syrian Revolution, had authenticated the relationship with the American agent's Bashar regime extending to personal and familial friendship, to the extent that he started saying "my brother and my friend Bashar" despite that Bashar was carrying out criminal acts in Lebanon and Syria like the massacre of Sednaya prison in 2008, but Erdogan did not see it as a massacre...! And Bashar with his security forces and secret police was persistent in the process of humiliating and degrading people, and Erdogan sees and hears, and nevertheless continued deepening his relationship with Bashar because America wanted this relationship to continue...
B- And when the revolution broke out, Erdogan continued to support Bashar and proceed with his actions and statements according to America's maneuvering and statements. And when he recently called for military intervention and went to Washington in his latest visit on 16/5/2013 we see that he has stopped calling for intervention. When America called for the Geneva America 2 dialogue between the opposition, the regime, and the formation of a transitional government of the two parties, Erdogan's government announced its support for it.
C. When France called for intervention in Libya alongside revolutionists against Gaddafi, Erdogan rejected this opposing France. However, upon America's call to intervene, Erdogan supported America.
D. When Erdogan wanted to visit Gaza in late May 2013, America ordered him to delay it as quoted by Secretary of State John Kerry on 22/4/2013 in a public statement delivered during his visit to Turkey, prompting Turkish Deputy Prime Minister Bulent Arinc to say: "Mr. Kerry's statement (relating to his call to the Prime Minister to delay his visit to Gaza) from a diplomatic and political perspective is objectionable, wrong and incorrect". (Reuters 23/4/2013) Arinc also claimed that, "It is up to our government to decide where our prime minister or a Turkish official will go and when." This statement however did not conform to reality, where the Prime Minister feigned forgetfulness about the planned visit to Gaza, no longer spoke of it, and in fact, when it was mentioned by officials that he will visit on the 5th of May, Turkish governmental sources hastened to deny the visit, in compliance with American orders.
These and other examples indicate that Turkey has not been able to leave in any partial aspect of its foreign policy the orbit it revolves in. Knowing that the reason of his intended visit to Gaza, Erdogan wanted to strengthen his popularity which was shaken because of his betrayal to the people of Syria after he promised them that he will support them saying: "We will not allow for a second Hama (massacre)...", but the criminal Bashar regime committed a second, third and many other Hama (massacres)... in every city and village without Erdogan and his government making any move, and in fact, the Syrian regime toppled a Turkish plane, fired on Syrian refugee camps in Turkey and on Turkish villages killing Turks, still Erdogan made no move, although this was an enough reason to intervene, and he even had every right to do so if he did, but America prevented him from doing so.
It is worth mentioning that Turkey no longer revolves in Britain's orbit after a heavy blow was directed at the forces of the British Army who were removed from commanding the Army staff and arrests were made at high levels, and are still languishing in prisons, while Turkey is still filtering the army. İt is also expected for more filtering to occur at the beginning of next month as reconsidering or freezing promotions or referring officers to retire take place every year. This is supervised by the Chief of Staff along with the leaders of the armies and with the approval of the Prime Minister, i.e., Turkey currently revolves in America's orbit, and the impact of America in Turkey's affairs is strong, so if the situation continues as it is now of Turkey's strong links with America, Turkey would then become closer to the full subordination to America and it revolving in its orbit would then become questionable!
21st Ramadhan 1434 AH
30/07/2013 CE

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