Russia has annexed the Crimea, and Putin signed a document regarding this on 18/3/2014. Does this mean that what happened is a preliminary step by Russia to annex the rest of Ukraine, and especially after it was met with a feeble reaction the West?
Jazaak Allah Khair.
As we have mentioned before in our answers that the current regional and international conditions do not allow any of the three parties, Ukraine's stakeholders, to control Ukraine completely, but the solution expected between the three parties is a compromise ... therefore Russia overtaking the whole of Ukraine is unlikely at the moment, or at least in the foreseeable future. If Russia was able to settle in Crimea, it means that the West, especially America, will settle in the rest of Ukraine.
As for overtaking the whole of Ukraine by any of the three parties, as we have said, it is unlikely at this time, or at least in the near future.
What seems to be currently taking place is an indication to the implementation of the compromise; Russia controlling Crimea, and the West, especially America controlling the rest of Ukraine, and these indicators are:
- Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoygu contacted his U.S. counterpart, Chuck Hagel via phone call on Thursday, 20/3/2014, stating that Moscow will not attack Eastern Ukraine and told him: "The forces dispersed along the border are just there for military exercises, but do not have any intention to cross the border to Ukraine or to carry out any act of aggression."
- The statement by the interim government in Kiev confirmed on the same day "it will respond militarily" to any Russian attempt to annex parts of the Russian-speaking east of Ukraine. "Knowing that it has stated regarding the Crimea before that on 19/3/2014 of its readiness to withdraw its troops from the Crimea; the head of the security apparatus, Andrey Probai, in the Ukraine stated that his country is preparing to withdraw its troops and citizens of Crimea. He said that the main objective is to transfer the forces and Ukrainian families in "the fastest and most efficient ways."
This indicates the signs of the compromise to exchange the peninsula for the rest of Ukraine! Ukraine's interest in the Eastern region is more prominent, while the degree of interest in the peninsula decreased.
These signs have become clear on Friday, 21/03/2014 during the European Summit held in Brussels, where the European Union signed political conditions to the partnership agreement with the interim Prime Minister of Ukraine Arseniy Yatsenyuk. An agreement that will make Kiev closer to its membership in the united European bloc; the agreement that caused the crisis between Ukraine and Russia, when the decision by former Ukrainian President Yanukovych not to sign it have led to a massive wave of protests and demonstrations by the Ukrainians ...
In addition, all the indicators expose the nature of the compromise solution... However, as we said in our previous answers, Ukraine will remain a time bomb waiting to explode when the international and regional conditions change either in favor of Russia or the West, then each party will attempt to take the whole of Ukraine in accordance with the international circumstances at the time ... Ukraine is the waist line of Russia, at the same time a gateway to Europe.
Unless there is a change in international and regional conditions the compromise solution will remain in place, this in the short term may lead to stability and " temporary peace " ... As for lasting stability, especially in Crimea, it will not be achieved unless it returns to what it was before the Russian occupation and its stability since the late eighteenth century and early nineteenth century, i.e. when it returns as part of the coming Khilafah State, God willing.
21 Jumada I 1435 AH