On 8/2/2015 CE, the Nigerian Electoral Commission announced the postponement of the presidential and legislative elections which were scheduled to take place on 14th February 2015; they have been postponed to 28th March 2015 under the pretext of internal security concerns... Is this the case? Or is this delay is for international reasons? And if so, which countries are influencing this delay? And what is expected for this election?
I have noticed that the Hizb publications are almost devoid of talk about Nigeria's issues although it is the largest Muslim country in terms of population in Africa, and overlooks the ocean, and an oil producing country, so why is there no attention paid to it? And excuse me if my right is to ask a question and not to comment... Jazak Allah Khair.
First, I will start with your comment and say:
You asked to be excused about something which is your right, and this shows that you have good manners, May Allah bestow upon you more of it.
As for the concern in Nigeria, it is present, by the permission of Allah, so rest assure; we are aware of what you have mentioned, and other matters as well, and we are making good progress in it, and Allah (swt) grants success.
As for the publications, we take into account some of the considerations and priorities... however we have issued about Nigeria more than once, for example:
- We issued the Question and Answer on 13/3/2009 "Is there any historical information on the introduction of Islam to Nigeria, and how was it ruled after that? And what is the political situation in Nigeria?".
- And we issued on 20/01/2012 "Information for members - the group "Boko Haram" and the fierce campaign against Islam in Nigeria and how it is affected by the international relations"
- On 21/8/2012, we issued the Question and Answer, "Recently some situations, events, circumstances, and conflicts in Nigeria and Kenya have raised the interest of observers... Does this mean that the United States or the United Kingdom or other forces have adopted a new policy to encourage the ongoing civil wars all across Africa, currently in Nigeria, and in Kenya after the general election in 2007 or are these internal events?".
- It was a detailed answer, we related in it about Jonathan and his election to the presidency in 2011, the answer stated: "... that Obasanjo is the main American agent in the country, and is charged with the responsibility of ensuring the continuation of the American hegemony in Nigeria and the marginalization of the British influence, Obasanjo is the one who chose Jonathan for the position of vice president of Umaru in the 2007 presidential elections; it has been mentioned in the profile of Goodluck Jonathan as reported by the BBC: "Mr. Jonathan took over as governor and two years later was chosen by the Olusegun Obasanjo to be the vice president of Nigeria in the presidential elections of 2007) "(Profile of Goodluck Jonathan: Nigeria, BBC News Online, 18 April 2011). later, Obasanjo planned Jonathan's access to the presidency; according to Vanguard newspaper, Obasanjo was instrumental in the arrival of Jonathan for the presidency, the newspaper reported "When Yar'Adua's recovery from an incurable illness was hopless after nearly two years of the four-term years, Obasanjo visited for the first time the ill president in the Saudi hospital and returned to lead the inauguration campaign of Goodluck Jonathan as Vice President to perform the constitutional oath as Chargé d'affaires of President Yar'Adua because he was not handed over the post before the travel of the President abroad (Klifor: the Resignation of Obasanjo: What after the People's Democratic Party, Jonathan? "Vanguard newspaper online 4 April 2012).
Thus America succeeded in getting a broad mandate to Jonathan in his re-election to the presidency in 2011, where Jonathan used social media tools to reach out to the masses of Nigeria and ensured 77.7% of the vote, these results were advanced compared with the votes during the rule of Umaru Yar'Adua... " End quote.
Thus, we have publications about Nigeria even though they are less than what we have published about other regions... but as I mentioned to you earlier, we "take into account some of the considerations and priorities".
Nevertheless, May Allah reward you for your keenness and interest, May Allah give you success and support.
Second: The answer to your question about the postponement of the elections:
For a clearer answer, I will mention to you the following:
1. America has recently announced plans to strengthen its influence in Nigeria; some of which was published in The New York Times 07/06/2014 CE regarding "the US decision to launch a television channel that it funds directly and it operates 24 hours in northern Nigeria in order to face the Boko Haram insurgency and other Islamic militant groups". The newspaper quoted a US official's statement that "This project was the result of discussions with Nigeria dating back to late 2012 on ways to cooperate against Boko Haram, and that the channel content will be the production of Nigerians in Nigeria." The newspaper said that "the counter-terrorism office in the US State Department will fund the channel, which is expected to cost about six million dollars."
2. Britain colonized Nigeria up until 1960 and was the one with absolute influence there, and still has influence there, albeit weaker now than ever before, America has come to compete with this influence, they both have influence there and compete over it. The UK motivated France, which is concerned for its influence in neighboring Nigeria countries; and introduced Chadian troops deployed on the Cameroonian-Nigerian border before Tuesday noon (03/02/2015) to Gambur, the Nigerian city after fierce battles with the Islamists group Boko Haram." (AFP 03/02/2015)
It was reported that this city was captured by the group a month ago. The Chadian troops had entered Cameroon in the middle of last month, the month of January. Reuters reported on 03/02/2015 that the French aviation carried out surveillance tasks to assist the countries located on the border with Nigeria in facing the Boko Haram militants... and Britain does not like public confrontation with America according to the recently followed British policy and outwardly it demonstrates that it stand with them and it even involves them in international issues to stop their evil away from it, it is afraid to confront them publicly so as not to lose their interests with America and what remained of their influence in the old colonies, and at the same time, Britain moved France, which it has for long moved and used since ancient times to achieve its objectives, especially since France likes public confrontation because it loves to demonstrate its greatness and is always working to confirm it. This is why Britain could exploit it to achieve its goals, especially that France does not master the political maneuvering... In all this, the conflict is actually between America and Britain.
3. As for inside Nigeria, the Nigerian government is cracking down on Muslims, who make up the majority of the population of the country. In February 2014, it has announced a ban on wearing headscarves in state schools. The state led by Christians and is backed by the West, led by America, is blatantly biased to Christians. Western education curriculum has been imposed on Muslims. And state brutality towards Muslims has increased... Soldiers in the Nigerian Army who rejected carrying out atrocities committed by the regime against the Muslim people were sentenced to death. Sky News on 18/12/2014 reported a story that "a military court in Nigeria on 18/12/2014 has sentenced 54 members of the Special Forces who had refused to participate in the fight against Boko Haram to death. Last September 12 soldiers were sentenced to death on charges of rebellion after firing shots at the Commanding Officer in Maiduguri, northeast of the country... All of this has exposed the resentment to the rule of Jonathan and the hatred of a large proportion of the civilian and military against his rule that can significantly affect the votes he receives if the elections run on time.
4. This is on one hand, and on the other hand, the current contender against Jonathan in the elections is the former President Mohammadu Bukhari, who belongs to the Hausa tribe, which is the largest tribe, it constitutes a quarter of the population and the vast majority of whom are Muslims, and he is popular in northern Nigeria, and had competed against Jonathan in 2011. It was announced that Mohammed Bukhari had won by 32%, so he cast doubts in the integrity of the election and said it was manipulated through "using computer programming at the Nigerian Electoral Commission to hurt him." By this he indirectly accused America, as they were the providers of the technical expertise to the Commission, as well as funded and supervised it. Johnny Carson, US Secretary of State Assistant at the time praised this Commission. Nigerian officials have held high-level talks in Washington on 9/12/2010 with US officials about these elections that took place in April 2011 and what is related to it in terms of technical support, financing and supervision.
And Mohammadu Bukhari is from Britain's agents and was a former military ruler, he has staged a coup in 1983 to topple Shehu Shagari who took civilian rule in 1979... Bukhari competed with the retired General Olusegun Obasanjo in the 1999 elections and the 2003 elections. And in the 2007 elections Obasanjo nominated Yar'Adua as a candidate for his party who belongs to a Muslim tribe to compete against Bukhari so that the latter loses in those elections, and then accuses the Obasanjo-led regime of fraud, and as mentioned above, Mohammadu Bukhari is fairly popular, especially in the north of Nigeria, which makes him and his party, the Progressive Congress Party enjoy a real chance to dislodge Jonathan and his party, the People's Democratic Party from power.
5. Accordingly, America felt that the elections are not in its favor, so Kerry began to plan the postponement:
- He met with the British Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond on 23/01/2015 as reported by AFP which was two weeks before the postponement, and no doubt that the elections were the most prominent topic on the table, America is aware that the Britain has its men in Nigeria...
- Then Kerry met with the opposition party, the Progressive Congress party leaders and its candidate Mohammadu Buhari. Kerry said after the meeting, "President Barack Obama asked him to inform the Nigerian political figures that America is ready to participate and support Nigeria, but the democratic process must be credible." (AFP 25/01/2015).
- Then he met with the Nigerian President Jonathan, who expressed "his commitment to hold free and fair and credible elections." (AFP 25/01/2015).
These visits were related to the presidential election, AFP reported the news of Kerry's visit to Nigeria on 25/01/2015, saying, "Kerry also will discuss the presidential and legislative elections to be held on February 14th."
6. It seems that Kerry during these announced and unannounced meetings was trying to find a solution with the agreement of all parties to postpone the election for some time, but he did not reach this solution, and so he ordered Jonathan - without waiting for the consent of the parties - to postpone the elections for about a month and a half, and so the Nigerian Electoral Commission announced on 08/02/2015 the postponement of the presidential and parliamentary elections scheduled for February 14 to March 28 under the pretext of security concerns. As America's habit is to show itself distant from the situation, and that the decision is that of the Government of Jonathan. John Kerry said in a statement, "Washington was very frustrated because of Nigeria's decision to postpone the elections" (Reuters, 08/02/2015). Kerry said this while the issue is exposed for all who can see, his meetings mentioned in AFP focused on the issue of elections and the postponement decision was taken by the order of the United States, in particular since it is inconceivable that Jonathan opposes America while he is affiliated to it and relies on its support. Reuters reported on 08/02/2015 that the Nigerian Electoral Commission "have caved in to pressure from the ruling People's Party in a move likely to provoke opposition."
7. The government's argument that the postponement is for security matters, it is also a rebutted argument. Contradictions and hesitations in the positions of Jonathan's regime have appeared in the selection of the postponement arguments. Attahiru Jega the Chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission, said, "We cannot lightly dismiss the advice of Security leaders in the country. The risk of sending out young men and women and inviting people to exercise their democratic rights in a situation where you cannot ensure the security is a great responsibility. As a result, the Commission decided to set a new elections date, the general elections, the presidential elections and the National Assembly, to be held on 28 March 2015 and the elections of governors and state assemblies will be held on 11 April." Jega also said, "The National Security Adviser, sent a letter to the Election Commission last week, which explained that it is not possible to ensure security during the original proposed date for the elections... "and he said, 'No one forced us to take this decision'. He said this dubiously denying the coercion which itself proves the coercion! Not only that, but before that Sambo Dasuki the National Security Adviser, last month he called for "the postponement of the elections because of fears of not distributing enough of the necessary identity cards to vote on time." (Reuters, 08/02/2015) ... When a month ago, the National Security Adviser called for the postponement of the elections, claiming that the necessary identity cards to vote were not distributed, while the Election Commission announced that the postponement was due to security concerns?! The contradiction between the two statements is clear!
Thus, the postponement is not for the reasons as declared by the Government of Jonathan, it is a US decision, because its agent the current President Jonathan is in a critical position and there are fears that he will not be successful; and as mentioned above, analysts and observers point out that his rival Muhammadu Bukhari and his party, the Progressive Congress party have a real opportunity to dislodge Jonathan and his people's Democratic Party from power.
8. As what can be expected to happen, is one of the following possibilities:
a. That during the postponement period, with the help of America, Jonathan will try to achieve some victories, and there will be signs of the establishment of security, reducing the acts of violence, and he will achieve great success if he is supported with international arrangements supported by America to find some solutions for the kidnapped schoolgirls.
b. Or that America will succeed to find a compromise with Britain, and Jonathan participate with Mohammadu Bukhari, one being president and the other is his vice president, bringing a return to the formula that was invalidated by Jonathan, where one being a Christian and the other a Muslim, and of course the moving forces behind both will have the strength i.e. the parties conflicting in Nigeria, America and Britain.
c. There will be a repeat to the elections postponement, or it will be held on the new date and America's candidate manipulates the computer programming, as what took place in the previous elections, in both cases events of violence will escalate and people will suffer its brunt especially Muslims...
d. Or Allah honors the Ummah to establish the guided Khilafah in an influential Islamic country, and then fear strikes the hearts of the Kaffir colonists, and they will not dare to conspire against Islam and the Muslims, and Muslims in Nigeria and outside Nigeria will be victorious:,
وَلَيَنْصُرَنَّ اللَّهُ مَنْ يَنْصُرُهُ إِنَّ اللَّهَ لَقَوِيٌّ عَزِيزٌ
"And Allah will surely support those who support Him. Indeed, Allah is Powerful and Exalted in Might" [Al-Hajj: 40]
26 Rabii' II 1436 AH