The first question: According to Al Jazeera.net 2/3/2017, there is news of large Chinese military build-up inside East Turkistan Xinjiang province in western China, according to the report: "The Chinese authorities have deployed, two days ago, more than ten thousand soldiers in the city of Urumqi in Xinjiang province, northwest of the country, which is inhabited by ethnic Muslim Uyghurs which has been experiencing rising tensions for years. The security forces organized a military display attended by dozens of tanks and armored cars, and coincided with a heavy helicopter hovering above. This was the largest military display of its kind in the region, which has seen during the current year three similar displays in the areas of Hotan, Kashgar, and Aksu.” So is China preparing for new massacres for this Muslim region? Thank you.
Answer: In order to unravel the details of the Chinese intentions it is preparing for Muslims in this region, we must look briefly at the background of the conflict between China and the Muslim Uyghurs in the region:
1. The conflict between China and the Muslims in this region is not new, especially since 1863, Eastern Turkistan which is at the furthest east of the Muslim countries, it has been subjected to campaigns of Chinese massacres, more than one million Uyghur Muslims died in the clashes that took place in the year 1949 when the Chinese Communist regime led by Mao Zedong took over and abolished the independence of the territory, and annexed it to the Republic of China, the region was emptied of its population Muslims and were distributed to the inner provinces in China. But Uyghur Muslims (of strong resolve) did not surrender to the Chinese, they erupted in revolution in 1933 and 1944, and the revolutions continue in the region against the uprisings Chinese occupation as it was in 2009.
2. Islam is the main reason for the intense hatred of the Chinese towards the Uyghur Muslims, mosques is where China spouts its venom against Islam, it has demolished an estimated 25 thousand mosque in 1949, and only about 500 mosques were left in this vast territory. Today, after China abandoned half of the communism in "economy," but it still hunts down of any manifestations of religiousness, especially among young people, this has been the actual policy practiced by China in the region.
3. Because of the presence of natural resources, especially oil in the region, which China calls Xinjiang, i.e. the new colony, China proceeded to empty the territory of its population of Uyghurs and push them to the inland areas in China, and bring Chinese of the Hun ethnicity to settle in the region, until the Uyghurs today (10 million people) make up only 40% of its population, and their concentration increases in the south of the province and rural areas. The region is strongly characterized by poverty, especially in the south where there is a concentration of Muslims, as well as in the rural areas where there is less or no ethnic Hun Chinese.
4. In spite of all that, the vitality of Muslims continued in East Turkistan that enabled the return of the manifestations of Islam to life especially in the countryside, and unrest plaguing the region continued every now and then, and making it a territory distinguished by instability because of the bombings and acts of violence against the state and the fixed position of seeking secession from China, it became the weakest spot of the state from the inside. In contrast, China is watching the details of the lives of Uyghur Muslims, and prevent the media from monitoring the executions and arrests it carries out in the darkness forcibly on the region, and it tracks down the Uyghur Muslims who fled and have a voice outside, and under the pretext of "terrorism" it has been able to arrest many of them through international security channels, particularly from Central Asia countries and Pakistan.
5. And because Islam is alive in the hearts of Uyghurs, this have struck terror into the hearts of tyrants of China. China showed its fears, the biggest Chinese official for religious affairs, Wang Xuan, head of the Department of Religious Affairs in China, said to the National Conference of the Islamic Chinese League: (That the extremist ideology is infiltrating now to the « Interior regions. »the President Xi Jinping urged the Chinese Muslims to resist the religious illegal« infiltration »(Al Misry Al Youm, 29/11/2016, quoting the official newspaper China daily). This fear is confirmed in Russia today’s report, 1/3/ 2017: (China has repeatedly warned that extremist forces from abroad are behind the idea of carrying out terrorist operations in Xinjiang and other regions of the country, prompting authorities to launch harsh raids campaign.)
6. Due to the enthusiasm of Muslims that have emerged in the construction of thousands of mosques again in the region, and the spread of Islamic ideas, China started to bring back its "cultural revolution" to the region, and stresses in preventing the Islamic manifestations, and it prepares for a new terrorizing campaign of against Muslims, the manifestations of this campaign until now as follows:
A- withholding of passports: the BBC reported 24/11/2016: (Chinese authorities have asked all the citizens of Xinjiang, thw vast territory of the Muslim-majority located in the west of the country to surrender their passports to the police, ... Stefan McDonnell the BBC correspondent in China said that the handing over of passports request was through the official announcement by the police on the Internet, and all citizens in Xinjiang must now surrender their passports, the police retain the passports in their possession. This means that from now all the citizens of the region must apply for a request if they want to travel!)
B- Harassing Muslims in their worships: France 24 reported on 6/6/2016: (the Chinese authorities issued a decree on Monday to prevent the public sector employees and students from fasting during Ramadan in the Muslim Xinjiang region. Also it has imposed on restaurants to keep their doors open). A procedure that was practiced by the government since 2015, i24 news reported on 18/6/2015: (Chinese authorities prevented civilian employees, students and teachers in the Xinjiang region of fasting in the month of Ramadan ... and that "restaurants will operate normally during the time of Ramadan." Officials in Paul province were notified that, "during Ramadan they must not participate in fasting and other religious rites," according to a report posted on the local government website after a meeting this week.)
C- The pursuit and arrest of anyone who shows Islamic manifestations: Under the headline "China is pursuing the Muslims…an approval of the financial reward for those who report the bearded and (face) veiled" Ad-Diyar newspaper website cited on 23/02/2017 from a local newspaper in China: (China has set a reward of thousand yuan (275 euros ) for the one who reports a bearded young man or veiled woman in Xinjiang province, located north-west of the country, and there is tension between the Chinese Huns and Uyghur Muslims., according to local daily newspaper "Hotan", that the town of Hotan authorities, which have recently experienced political unrest, have allocated a fund worth 100 million yuan (13.7 million euros) to finance the rewards of "fighting terrorism." It added that the rewards can be up to five million yuan, in the event of detection a plan of attack, or those who "hit or kills or injure or control the rioters”)
7. Due to all the things mentioned above, the Chinese crackdown campaign on the Uyghur Muslims in East "Xinjiang" Turkistan may be under preparation and processing, and that their implementation may be at any given moment, the justification China can use is that the region is witnessing a lot of violence against the state, and can invoke a massive campaign, after mobilizing in the region thousands of soldiers and armored vehicles, and armored cars and helicopters, (the Communist party secretary of Xinjiang, Chen Chuan Jo, said that the military deployment in the region is aimed at ensuring security and stabilization, after the recent strikes that took place in several areas during the current year). (Al Jazeera Net, 2/3/2017)
8. The painful fact is that these Chinese atrocities against the Uyghur Muslims are taking place under the eyes and ears of millions of Muslims in the world without them putting pressure in removing these atrocities, this is because millions of Muslims are scattered and are not unified together by the state, the state of the Ummah, the state of Islam, the absent righteous Khilafah (caliphate) that must every Muslim who is able must work to bring it back, and to find a Khalifah, the imam, who takes care of affairs rightfully who protects and is fought from behind him, as stated in Sahih Al-Bukhari from Abu Huraira may Allah be pleased with him that he said: the Messenger of Allah (saw) said: «وَإِنَّمَا الإِمَامُ جُنَّةٌ يُقَاتَلُ مِنْ وَرَائِهِ وَيُتَّقَى بِهِ» “Verily the Imam is but a shield who is fought from behind and is protected by” and then China and other than China will not dare to hurt a Muslim because it realizes that its aggression will be met with double in retaliation, Allah is strong and powerful.
The Second question: (in recent times there have been a series of missile-launching activities in the Indian sub-continent, and in the first of March 2017 India tested a system of interceptor missiles ahead of Abdul Karim Island (off the Odisha coast in the Bay of Bengal). Earlier this year, Pakistan tested a missile system (Ababil), with a range of up to 2,200 km, which is capable of carrying multiple warheads. Are these missile tests part of a new arms race between India and Pakistan? What are the regional implications of these experiments?). Jazzak Allah Khair.
Answer: The missile tests in India and Pakistan is a continuation of the efforts of the two countries in achieving nuclear survival through the development of the ability to carry out a second strike, and to understand this better, it is necessary to understand the summary of the nuclear arms race in the subcontinent.
1. States are seeking to acquire nuclear weapons for two main reasons; first is to double the conventional military superiority, for example, North Korea confirms this trend, it considers nuclear weapons as key to overcome the conventional military superiority of South Korea and to annoyAmerica, which has thousands of troops stationed in the Korean Demilitarized Zone ... the second is to face the nuclear-armed states, for example, when the Soviet Union's failed to expand the nuclear umbrella to include China during the Korean war, China proceeded to get nuclear weapons, prompting India to continue its nuclear program, which in turn led to the pursuit of Pakistan to launch its nuclear program , and so the three countries sought to reach a state of nuclear parity with each other to prevent a possible nuclear attacks between them: Waltz, K. (1981). The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: More May Be Better: Introduction. The Adelphi Papers, 21 (171), pp.383-425
2. However, the mere possession of nuclear warheads is not enough to deter the nuclear adversaries from hostilities, for nuclear deterrence to be achieved, the countries that possess nuclear warheads must have the ability to protect its nuclear arsenal from any possible attack. The ability to launch nuclear warheads and hitting the opponents nuclear targets is called the first strike, and the ability to absorb the first strike and launch a nuclear retaliatory strike is known as the second strike, i.e. it is able to survive as a result of the first strike and it has nuclear warheads enough to cope with strikes, and this is called nuclear Trinity, which is found when the state owns submarines capable of launching nuclear missiles; it is difficult to detect submarines, and they have the ability to carry out a counter strike that paralyzes the aviation capacity.
3. Nuclear deterrence between the nuclear states works well when both countries have the capacity of a second strike, this ensures that there is a mutual destruction to both parties, and the fear of this prevents the parties from launching a first strike, and nuclear strategists call this situation “mutual assured destruction (MAD)”. Thus, unlike conventional weapons, the real value of nuclear weapons is to deter the enemy from using the nuclear weapon.
4. Since India and Pakistan began the nuclear tests in 1998, nuclear scientists and strategists and politicians have sought to apply the above mentioned theory of nuclear deterrence on the ground, and because of the phenomenon of mutual assured destruction (MAD), both sides believe that the nuclear peace exists on the sub-continent, and this is the main engine behind the rapid development of missile technology, and reducing the size of nuclear warheads to be carried on the missiles, and the development of all operations. At the same time, it is necessary to use the perspective of nuclear deterrence to understand the recent missile tests between India and Pakistan over the past decade there has been progress in missile technology and securing a first strike option by both sides, however, recent developments suggest greater efforts to preserve the option of a second strike, see the following examples:
A- Submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM): on the ninth of January 2017, Pakistan conducted a successful test of the missile (Babur 3) from an undisclosed location in the Indian Ocean, cruise missiles were fired from an underwater with a range of 450 km, it was carried out in the sea to avoid being discovered. The Pakistani army said it was testing a rocket (Babur 3), which gives Islamabad the ability to carry out a "second strike":
However, Pakistan does not possess nuclear submarines and have to carry (Babur 3) in the diesel and electricity-powered submarines, which has a limited ability to stay underwater. (Babur 3) is Pakistan's response to India's missile system (K4) launched by Indian submarines-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) which was launched in May 2014, with a range of up to 3,000 km, and can reach Pakistan and China, and thus India and Pakistan possess the ability of a second strike.
B- Multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles (MIRV): India conducted tests of the two missiles that have nuclear capability in December 2016 and January 2017. The first is the (Ajny- V), a surface to surface ballistic missile which is a rapid development of the nuclear arsenal, and the second (Ajni V) which carries the multi-purpose nuclear warheads with a range of 5,000 km. In addition, in January 2017 Delhi tested (Ajni-IV), a system that ranges up to 4,000 km. Missile (Ajni V) gives the possibility of striking nuclear targets which are located in China ... This year, Pakistan tested a missile system (Ababil) that have the capabilities (multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles MIRV), and in a statement issued by the Pakistani army, it stated the following: " the first successful operation took place to test (Ababil) the surface to surface ballistic missile with a range of up to 2,200 km, capable of carrying multiple
warheads, using (MIRV) technology, and is able to deal with multiple targets in details and defeat enemy radars of hostile targets ": https://www.dawn.com/news/1310630
The (Ababil) rockets were designed by Pakistan to overwhelm the defenses of the Indian ballistic missile nuclear shield. India is actively testing the interceptor missiles such as (Ashvin) to bring down possible Pakistani nuclear missile. Through the deployment of (MIRV) technology one nuclear missile can turn into several nuclear missiles, which nullifies the missile interceptor capability.
5. There is no doubt that the nuclear arms race between India and Pakistan is to prepare for the option of a second strike, which will upset the nuclear balance with India’s rival (i.e. China), while China is working on the minimum on the issue of nuclear deterrence. And India’s rapid development of (MIRV) technology and submarines carrying missiles has encouraged its leaders, the Indian army chief (Gen. Bipin Rawat) said that his country "is ready to fight a war on two fronts" with Pakistan and China at the same time:
The test of the Indian missile (Ajni V) has angered China, the spokesman for the Chinese Foreign Ministry (Chunying) said: "the Security Council of the United Nations have clear rules on whether India can develop ballistic missiles capable of carrying nuclear weapons," the ministry went on to say that India’s ambitions with (Ajni V) may be intended to counter China:
6. India could not have adopted this provocative policy without American support via the agreement (123) that was ratified in 2005, which enabled it to get a steady supply of nuclear fuel for its civilian reactors, and therefore the use of nuclear fuel in the Indian nuclear program. Trump’s administration indicated clearly that it wants to build on the progress made by previous US administrations to India, in the February 8th, 2017, the US Secretary of defense (Gen. James Mattis) praised in a telephone conversation with his Indian counterpart (Manohar Barikar) the "tremendous progress" made by India in the " last years "and referred to the " joint cooperation between the two countries in the field of defense, "he said that the new administration is keen to" maintain the momentum and build on it: "
It is expected that America continues to exploit the nuclear arms race in the subcontinent to implicate China in the nuclear arms race, and America’s goal is to shift China from the economic activity to the military activity, to facilitate the collapse of China, just as the United States did with the Soviet Union. At present China still maintains the minimum nuclear deterrent and refuses to be drawn into a nuclear arms race.
12 Jumada II 1438 AH