Thursday, November 23, 2006

Analysis of North Korea's Nuclear test

The following is a draft translation from Arabic.

Question: What could be understood from what was announced that North Korea performed a nuclear experiment? Did it really perform this experiment or is it a news media stimulation, which was produced well for a political aim?

Answer: It is known that Korea is a nuclear country, meaning that it has the scientific as well as the financial ability. The Soviet Union used to help it before the Kennedy -Khrushchev agreement in 1961, after that, when the relation of the Soviet Union deteriorated with China- China continued its support. At the beginning the aim of North Korea -from the strong arming and nuclear activity- was to re unite Korea. In return, America used to make military and economic agreements… with South Korea in order to prevent that.

After the relations between America and China, the Chinese support for Korea -in order to reach the aim of re-uniting Korea- became less, then the (momentum) of arming Korea became a burden on its economy, the aim was not to take South Korea, but to protect its own entity, especially that its economic resources became nearly scarce, it wanted to decrease the arming and be more interested in its economy, but it also wanted to guarantee the safety of its entity, knowing that danger is coming from America, so it started provocations to draw the attention and to sign an agreement with America (not to assault) and organize an economic status (aids) with South Korea and Japan, knowing that this will be accomplished if it signed an agreement with America, because it is the stimulus for the neighboring countries.

America refused the mutual negotiations, and agreed on the six fold negotiations, so that the neighboring countries will share in the issue, and so that enmity will not be limited between America and North Korea, but to have hostile sides from the neighbors (supposed enemies). Thus Korea was not able to realize what it wanted.

Provoking the nuclear experiment (the last experiment) is a political work, to force America to negotiate with North Korea and to originate an agreement of security and peace and guarantee its entity, upon which America will sign, so that Korea will attend to its economic situation.
This means that the original aim from the intensive arming of North Korea -which was to unite both Koreas- had deteriorated from the side of the Soviet Union since 1961, and from the side of China since the mid-nineties, when warmth stirred to a certain extent in the relations between America and China.

Hence, North Korea wants to guarantee the survival of its entity, in order to attend to improving the standard of its economy, this requires making a mutual agreement with America concerning that. America wants the agreements to be discussed by the countries of the region, so that its commitment will be not binding (be loose)…. Therefore the nuclear actions (and the provocations in the gulf of Korea) were for drawing the attention, to warm the atmosphere and make America agree on signing a mutual agreement with it.

As for inquiring about the experiment, it really took place, but it was not that big to cause dangerous radiation, especially that the regions in which the experiments are allowed are close to China. And Korea has no one left to lean on except China.

And because China is no more in a state of hostility with America as before, there are even economic interests through some American companies… therefore it is expected that china will not aggravate the situation, and that it will resume the six fold negotiations in order to achieve a compromise according to the capitalist method, as for signing a direct mutual agreement between America and Korea in other than the atmosphere of the six fold negotiations, this will not exist at least in the range of vision.

One probability remains, which is that the current economy of North Korea is very weak, it gets funds from China and (some) from south Korea, it wants to guarantee its entity to lessen the expenditure on its arming and stress on its economy instead…. But if things remain as they are, and it does not get an agreement with America to guarantee its security and stop aggression…. Meaning if it is jammed in the corner…. Then there is a possibility to make a bigger provoking action -a more dangerous one- to reach to an agreement with America. But this probability is made weak by the attitude of China -which has effect on Korea- which puts pressure on North Korea, being the main source of economic support, with what its gives from aids to Korea.
Therefore things will be directed towards the six fold committee and compromises will be done with America, in which there is face saving for the sides which have association.

01 Shawal 1427 AH
23 October 2006 CE

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