Question:
US
President Obama announced on 29/12/2016, three weeks before his departure, of a
number of tough sanctions against Russia, including the expulsion of a large
number of Russian diplomats from the US, 35 diplomats and the closure of
missions and complexes of Russian diplomats in Maryland and New York under the
pretext of espionage. All this escalation in tensions is against the backdrop
of US accusations of Russia’s cyber hacking the US elections. Does this require
all of these procedures? Or there is a change in Russia's role in Syria that
necessitated these actions? Or are there other reasons especially that Trump
professes to improve relations with Russia while Obama is making it worse!
Jazak
Allah Khair.
Answer:
In
order to get a clear response, we need to review the reality of what happened
and then we review the questions you raised:
First: As for what actually happened, it is
true that the current US administration is actually worsening US-Russian
relations. Russia understood the message and immediately responded by Kremlin spokesman
Peskov that Russia has pledged “adequate reprisals” over US sanctions and
accused Washington of trying to destroy ties by making “unfounded” allegations
of interference in the US election. The United States wants to “definitively
destroy US-Russia relations which have already reached a low” adding that
Russia will “react in an adequate manner based on the principles of
reciprocity.” (news.com.au,
Russia Today, French Channel, 29/12/2016).
Some
aspects of worsening the relationships were the following US steps:
1- The US President, Barack Obama said on 15/12/2016 that
the United States will respond to the Russian hack to influence the US elections.
Obama explained to NPR radio: "I think there is no doubt that when any
foreign government tries to impact the integrity of our elections… we need to
take action." Adding, "And we will respond at a time and place of our
own choosing." The US president continued: "some of it "the response"
may be explicit and publicized, some of it may not be"... (NPR, France 24, 16/12/2016). The US administration’s
response appeared in the sanctions announced by Obama against Russia.
2- The US
President, Obama attacked Russia sarcastically, describing it as "a small
country" and said, "They are smaller and weaker, their economy does
not produce something others want its procurement only oil, gas and arms, and
it does not develop". (Russia Today, 17/12/2016)
3- The US
Treasury Department announced on 20/12/2016 to impose new sanctions on seven
Russian businessmen and eight companies in protest at Russia's annexation of
Crimea and conflict based in Ukraine, according to Reuters news agency... and
the sanctions target seven people, including many cadres in the Russian bank,
which is the closest to the Russian authorities, as well as four construction
companies that operates in Crimea annexed by Moscow. The US administration said
that the move "confirms rejection of the occupation of Russia to the
Crimea and the refusal to recognize attempts to annex the peninsula." (dotmsr.com
20/12/2016).
4-
The US playing to the tune of Star Wars programme to respond to the continued
development of Russia's nuclear weapons, and in this framework US laws were
modified to allow the militarization of space. “It must be pointed out that the
US Congress included two important amendments to the bill at the stage of
ratification, one eliminates the limited deployment of Washington's missile
shield, while the second requires the initiation of work on the design of new
components in this system for its deployment in space in the future. US newspaper,
Los Angeles Times, reported that Trent Franks, Congress member from the
Republican party and one of the senior members to introduce the amendments, admitted
that they depend on the program "strategic defense initiative"
launched by President Ronald Reagan in 1983, and also known as "Star
Wars". (adn.news, Dar news website, 24/12/2016), and is meant to add
tensions with Russia.
5- The US House of Representatives adopted on Friday,
2/12/2016, a bill giving $3.4 billion to the US Department of Defense in 2017
in order to "deter Russia." This was supported by the 390-member of
the House of Representatives, where only 30 were opposed to the bill. The
American Secretary of Defense, Ashton Carter announced in the presentation of
the defense-spending bill to Congress that the United States "is
consolidating its positions in Europe for its NATO allies in the face of Russian
aggression". (Sputnik Russian Agency, 03/12/2016)
6- In addition, the United States has lowered Russia’s
rank in resolving the Syrian crisis, and replaced the Kerry-Lavrov duo, which
is cherished dearly by Moscow, and view it as an indicator of the return of the
greatness of Russia, by the Russian-Turkey duo. America, although in constant
contact and continuous support of the Russian-Turkish efforts in Syria, to
ensure the implementation by the parties of their projects in Syria, but the
format of Russia-Turkey instead of Russia-America has lowered Russia's rank as
an international player down to the level of Turkey a normal state, and this
can be seen in the context of US pressure on Russia.
7- This escalation truly scared Russia. In its response
to the US sanctions imposed by Obama, the Russian President said that Moscow
reserves the right to respond to the new US sanctions against it, but it will
not stoop to the level of the current US administration and will not target
diplomats. He added, "We will not create problems for American diplomats,
and will not expel anyone. And we will not prevent members of their families
and their children from using the usual places of recreation during the New Year’s
holiday. Moreover, we invite the children of US diplomats that are acknowledged
in Russia to attend a New Year’s Eve celebrations in the Kremlin." (Russia
Today, 30/12/2016) Moscow’s setback from the standard response, which is
similar treatment indicates two issues:
First Issue: Moscow’s severe fear of the objectives and consequences
of this crisis with Washington.
Second Issue: Moscow is counting on the hand-over to the new Trump
administration in Washington that will restructure the relations of the two
countries on the basis acceptable to Moscow. And due to Russia’s lack of
political awareness, it thinks that the next president, Trump, would be
different from his predecessor, Obama in his view of Russia, overlooking that
the vast institutions of governance all over America is leading any president,
and any party, to proceed in the implementation of his country's foreign
policies, and that the difference between Obama and Trump, when it happens, it
is intended to carry out the drawn American policy.
Second:
Review the questions raised above:
1- These
sanctions from the Obama administration against Russia comes in light of America’s reassurance of the stability of
Russia's role in the implementation of the international mission in Syria, and
Russia is carrying out the task to the fullest. America had completed
implicating Russia in Syria to the extent that it is impossible for Russia to
get out of the Syrian quagmire and when America was reassured it lowered
Russia’s rank to be a partner of the Turkish agent regime, in Syria, instead of
the actual American regime. Therefore America’s escalation to its relations
with Russia and increasing its pressure on is not related to the Syrian issue.
Russia
is steadfastly serving the American interests in Syria service and this is
never a matter of doubt to America, but that Russia's policy in Syria has
become trapped in the followings of America - Iran and its supporters, the
Syrian regime, Turkey and the opposition affiliated to it- and it cannot pursue
its own policy, it is neither able to withdraw and leave Syria for the unknown,
and therefore it is installing and expanding its military bases in Latakia and
Tartous ... nor is it able to control the pace of the fighting due to the
absence of a prepared ground force in Syria. For all this, the Russian role in
Syria has become stabilized, and even shackled to the US policy and its
followers, the actors in the Syrian crisis. That is why this escalation is
not due to Russia abandoning its role drawn for it by America, because Russia
has not abandoned it.
2- It
should not spring to mind that the US sanctions announced by President Obama is
an angry reaction to the electronic hacking, which may have contributed to the
loss of the Democratic Party and presidential candidate, Hillary Clinton.
Because it if this was so, then the Obama administration would have rushed on
the issue of sanctions before the Electoral College certified the election of Trump
officially as the president of the United States on 19/12/2016. However opening
the case after the success of the president-elect and the approval of the
constitutional institutions, it questioned strongly the credibility of the
elections and the credibility of the next president, and the US administration
will not accept to participate in... Even if we assume that there were
circumstances that prevented the imposition of sanctions prior to the approval
of the results, then the requirements of the political understanding of the
major states if they were not forced to announce the results after the approval
of the result of the Presidency, then they will use other excuses than hacking,
to avoid questioning the success of the next president, and since the
sanctions were imposed after the success of the president officially under the
pretext of Russia's intervention in the elections, then, is not the real reason.
3- It may be
argued that the development of Russia's nuclear weapons and offensive missile
is the reason for the current US pressure, in response to comments by Russian
President. He said in statements during a meeting with the leadership of the
Defense Ministry in Moscow: "We must raise the efficiency of the nuclear
strategic forces to a qualitatively new level, allowing to confront any
military risks that may threaten Russia". (Anatolia website, 22/12/2016).
Although this had an impact, but the small size of the Russian economy makes
Moscow's efforts in this not serious, after the United States and the West
generally succeeded in the elimination of the pillars of a wide-ranging line of
industry after the disintegration of the Soviet Union. Russia became a country
that exports raw materials, while retaining a great deal from the military
industry, which means that Russia does not seek to compete with the United
States internationally, but is calling for America to accept the role of Russia
in international politics. Those demands are rejected by America altogether,
even Russia's service to America in Syria was not enough for America to
recognize Russia as a superpower, and involve it in other international issues
that is Russia, which inherited the Soviet Union, and inherited the pages of the
history of the American-Soviet agreement. It had hoped that the cooperation
with the United States in Syria would lead to total agreement. It was demanding
more cooperation on the international arena with America, and this, if anything
shows the political weakness of the Russians, America tore the pages of their
harmony with the Soviet Union when it had effective and concrete presence around
the world, how can it now accept this with a small country - Russia - as
described by Obama ?!
Russia in this new small size does not
represent a real threat to America that requires this escalation, all this
shows that Russia's statements about the development of nuclear weapons is not
the real reason behind Obama’s escalation of tensions in the relationship with
Russia.
Third: So the above-mentioned cases are not the real
reasons for the escalation of tension, it is something else that can be
understood when reflecting on the following matters:
1- Any politician can easily realize that the main
international dilemma in front of America today, which is the rise of China,
and its ability to build a giant economy that has the potential of real threat
to the US economic uniqueness in the world. If you add to that the military
accelerated spending in China, which exceeds the spending in countries such as
Russia, Britain and France combined, and because many of its military programs
are kept in secret. China has become a major concern for American politicians,
and all the American officials’ statements were on this subject in recent
times, US Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter believes that China raised the
possibility of further militarization, and said that America is in transition...
Washington DPA: US Secretary of Defense Ashton
Carter said at a forum of defense in California: "After 14 years of
counter-insurgency and counter-terrorism ... we are in the midst of a
transition strategy to respond to the security challenges that will determine
our future." Carter said that China reclamation of land in the South China
Sea, raised the prospect of further militarization and a greater risk of
miscalculation ...” (Al Quds Al Arabi, 08/11/2015). President Obama said that
the future of America is decided today in Asia. He said that his campaign for
re-balancing of American foreign policy focusing more on Asia is not a "passing
fad" of his presidency…” (Vientiane, Reuters, the Seventh Day, 06/09/2016)
and its focus on Asia means confronting China.
2-
During the era of the Soviet Union, it had close ties with China and the Union
due the unity of the Communist Party. America was then working hard to defeat the
Soviet Union, it took its closeness with China very seriously, and worked to
separate this convergence as a necessary step to weaken the Soviet Union and
defeat it. Then Kissinger’s plan came to upset the relationship between China
and the Soviet Union, and has succeeded to a large extent ... and now the
reality changed, America is afraid of China's power and it noticed a convergence between China and Russia, which
it wants to stop, as a necessary step to isolate China and to weaken it, just
as it did previously, but in reverse, this is pointed out by the Washington Post
Newspaper. Russia Today cited from it on
18/12/2016 the following: “According to the article that 45 years ago the
former US President Nixon attempted to change the "triangle" format: the
Soviet Union - the United States - China, he gambled on the breach in the
development of relations with Beijing. On 4/2/1972, Nixon held a meeting with
his adviser for the national security, Kissinger, in order to discuss his Nixon
upcoming visit to China. Kissinger told President Nixon during the meeting that
"the Chinese are just as dangerous like the Russians and even in the historical perspective they
are more dangerous than the Russians". He added: “that after 20 years if
the next US president, is as wise like you, he will depend on the Russians in
his policy against the Chinese.”
3- Therefore, the
recent US sanctions against Russia can be understood, and the continued
American pressure for some time on Russia, and this pressure which is adopted
by most members of the Republican party
in Congress, i.e. the next president’s party, Trump, as well as the Democratic
Party. This pressure is a new US policy against Russia, in order to drag it
into the alliance with the United States against China, as if America is
saying, which is also what Russians are
stating openly, that the Obama administration had demolished the
American-Russian relations and brought it to the bottom. However, Russia has a
golden opportunity with the arrival of President Trump to repair relations with
Washington! This means that fixed-governing institutions in America
deliberately use time left of the Obama administration to speed up the
escalation in tension with Russia, so that Russia will not have a life line of
survival and hope, except through the understanding with the next Trump's administration,
which believes in deals making, which means that the reform of relations with
Russia will only be through a big deal with it regarding China. To achieve this
it is using the rumors of respect of President-elect Trump, for President Putin,
and that they can be allies against China.
4- What makes this
is likely is that President-elect Trump started to worsen US relations with
China even before he took office. He states that he will carry out his campaign
promises by imposing large taxes on Chinese goods, and to encourage American
companies to return, and this is a large commercial threat to China. Trump,
initiated contact with Taiwan’s president in a dangerous precedent suggesting
that America is reviewing its papers to put pressure on China, including the
threat of abandonment by the American policy of "one China" policy,
and this is a major political threat to China. Thus, the first priority of the
new US administration is to address the rise of China. Russia Today cited on
18/12/2016 from the Washington Post: US President-elect Donald Trump's
behavior says that he is considering the possibility of reviewing US policy
toward China. Trump called for a tough policy towards Beijing, through his
statements and his telephone calls. The US president-elect has made contact by
telephone with the President of Taiwan, for the first time in decades. Later,
Trump expressed his doubts in Washington’s commitment to the "one
China" policy, during an interview with American Fox News, which the
United States followed since the historic visit of President Nixon to China.
Trump accused China of committing commercial machinations.
5- As for how the
Trump’s deal would be with Russia against China, America is certainly not
planning to put the weak Russian economy in the face of China, and also it is
not planning to use Russian culture against China. Russia is free of any
culture of its own after the fall of Socialism. However America is keeping an open
eye for the military capabilities of Russia, which America can use around China,
such as commissioning Russia to participate against nuclear weapons of North
Korea, or to engage it in threatening energy supplies to China from it or from
Central Asia, or even participating in the imposition of policies regarding freedom
of navigation, especially in China Sea and the participation in America's
efforts to make China exit the islands. All those options not to mention the
pushing of Russia directly into confrontation with China, are all
internationally suicidal for Russia. But Russia could find itself involved in
those US policies in return for keeping its image as a superpower!!
It is
hard to imagine that Russia will be able to escape from the American pressure,
to be put aside in the face of China. Russia is inflicted with political shortsightedness,
and this illness became chronic, so it can not estimate the consequences, just
as it is indifferent to the Muslims’ responses because of its brutal
involvement in Syria. Due to its shortsightedness, it sees Muslims in kings,
presidents, and current figures, they pose it no real threat. It does not
realize that America refused to do the job itself in Syria because it is aware
of what is beyond these presidents and kings. Therefore Obama’s sanctions and
this deliberate escalation in tensions is to push Russia in a corner and pushes
it to Trump "its friend"! So
paving the road for Trump to make a deal with Russia to isolate it from China,
and even carry acts of aggression against China. This is the most probable
reason for the deliberate Obama escalation in tensions at the end of his term,
to prepare the way for Trump to achieve the goal of the US policy mentioned
developed by American institutions for the new term, as evidenced by
indicators. US politics is determined by the institutions and implemented by
presidents regardless of the president's party.
6- As for China, it is aware of the looming
danger, this is why it is tempting Russia with investments albeit cautiously,
and is running joint military exercises with it, and votes with it in the
Security Council with regard to the Syria veto, all in order to prevent its use
by Washington against it. But the hostile view of Russia in the minds of
Chinese politicians is almost entrenched, but the language of the new interests
posed by China's growing economy, and the urgent need for raw materials and
energy resources both available in Russia, push the hostile outlook to hide
behind a curtain.
As for China, it is aware
of America’s hostility towards it, and the insult that happened to Obama in his
recent visit to China is an indicator to that:
In his latest visit to
China as president of the United States, US President Barack Obama found
himself compelled to use the emergency ladder at the rear of the plane that
carried him to Guangzhou Airport to attend the first summit. It is not because
of a fire or a technical failure, but because the Chinese authorities did not
provide a special ladder to exit from the front of the plane normally.
Observers believe that China deliberately insulted the US president and that
this reflects the size of the tensions in the relations between the two
countries that differ in many files and issues, beginning with the declaration
of the United States and South Korea of the deployment of a missile shield on
the territory of the latter, as well as
the American position of the dispute between China and the Philippines in the
South China Sea, and the recent decision by Washington to impose additional
fees on imports of Chinese steel. (Al-Jazeera, 05/09/2016)
7-
One of the paradoxes of time that the former national security adviser and US
Secretary of State, Henry Kissinger, is today in person, despite his old age,
is the champion of Russian reconciliation with the next president Trump, he
himself pays visits to Moscow and conducts meetings with Putin, to move things
in this direction, i.e. the direction of alliance with Russia against China.
Russia is excited of this, thinking that Kissinger is interested in its
interests! Dmitry Peskov, press secretary of the Russian president, said that
Moscow welcomes the participation of the US former Secretary of State, Henry
Kissinger in restoring the relationship between Russia and the United States.
Peskov said in a press statement on Tuesday that Kissinger, the former US Secretary
of State, is one of the most wise and intelligent and experienced
politicians, and has deep experience in
Russian affairs, and at the level of US-Russian relations. (Arab media network,
27/12/2016)
This
direction taken is also indicated by some informed sources in Europe, Russia today
reported on 28/12/2016 the following: Bild, a German newspaper, wrote that
Kissinger sees improving relations with Russia is necessary due to the
increasing strength of China. As the US Secretary of State is a negotiator with
experience, and he personally met with President Putin, he will be a mediator
in the normalization of relations between the two countries. According to the
German newspaper, Trump is seeking to lift the sanctions on Russia, "on
the advice of Henry Kissinger," and this is indicated too with, "the
analysis carried out at the request of the concerned European organs",
which was based on data obtained from the transition team of President Trump.
All
of this indicates that America is implementing an effective policy on the
Russian and the Chinese side, its main basis is to push Russia to serve it in
the Chinese arena. This is initiated by the Obama administration by launching
the pressure phase on Russia, and the plan President-elect Trump is to make the
deal with it, America does not show any doubts about the necessity of Russia's
response to the US pressure and rush with it against China.
Fourth: Thus major countries fight and even non-major ones pursue
their interests with the disparity according to the varying influence between
those countries, the common denominator among them is this misery and evil that
lies visible in the world. Furthermore what is painful is that Islam has no
state to control and bring back this world to its senses and spread the good in
its lands, not only in the lands of Islam, but also in the surrounding areas to
the land of Islam. However, Islam has men.
﴿صَدَقُوا مَا عَاهَدُوا اللَّهَ عَلَيْهِ فَمِنْهُمْ مَنْ
قَضَى نَحْبَهُ وَمِنْهُمْ مَنْ يَنْتَظِرُ وَمَا بَدَّلُوا تَبْدِيلًا﴾
“Among the believers
are men true to what they promised Allah. Among them is he who has fulfilled
his vow [to the death], and among them is he who awaits [his chance]. And they
did not alter [the terms of their commitment] by any alteration.”
[Al-Ahzab: 23]
Who will bring back the Islamic state, Allah
willing, the state of Islam, the righteous Khilafah that will shift the balance
of the world towards the good.
﴿إِنَّ اللَّهَ بَالِغُ أَمْرِهِ قَدْ جَعَلَ اللَّهُ لِكُلِّ
شَيْءٍ قَدْرًا﴾
“Indeed, Allah will
accomplish His purpose. Allah has already set for everything a [decreed] extent.” [At-Talaq:
3]
7 Rabii’
II 1438 AH
5/1/2017
CE
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