As
President Obama prepares to leave the White House on the 20th January 2017, the future of
US-Russia relations is in turmoil. President-elect Trump has called for
friendly relations with Russia, while outgoing President Obama raised tensions
by announcing the expulsion of 35 Russian diplomats on the 29th
December, 2016. This follows reports from the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA)
and the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) that Russia conducted cyber
attacks against the US, which the CIA claimed were intended to influence the
election in Trump’s favor. Democrat Senator Amy Klobuchar, told the BBC that
the Russian hacking: "is not just about American democracy, it's about all
democracies … for the US just to roll over and to let this happen with no
response would have been a huge mistake." Republican Senator John McCain said:
"We have to make sure that there is a price
to pay, so that we can perhaps persuade the Russians to stop these kind of attacks
on our very fundamentals of democracy."
As
for Trump, he sided with Russian President Putin
in accusing the Democrat Party of being “bad losers”! Next day Putin said, "Although we have the right to retaliate, we
will not … but will plan our further steps to restore Russian-U.S. relations
based on the policies of the Trump administration.” Trump praised Putin’s
response: “Great move on delay (by Putin) - I always knew he was very smart!” So,
is Trump’s position a reflection of a new policy towards US-Russian relations?
Trump’s
view is aligned with the view of the “Tea Party” faction within the Republican
Party that says the US should not be burdened with moral leadership in the
world. This does not mean that the US would retreat from the world; it just means
that the US would not be responsible for forcing other countries to adhere to
the same human rights values that the US claims to adhere to. This explains
Trump’s statements that the US should work openly with Putin in Syria, despite
the unprecedented savagery of the Russian campaign, while Obama has distanced
himself from Putin publicly but coordinates with Russia indirectly through
Erdogan.
Trump
has made statements that seem to threaten the world order. He has suggested
leaving Europe alone to face Russian expansion if European countries do not pay
more money for their defense, and he is widely reported to have said that he might
recognize the Russian annexation in 2014 of Crimea from Ukraine, which would be
a major change in policy as the US punished Russia with economic sanctions for
that aggression. However, Trump’s
statements are slogans for his supporters to show them that he is “putting
America first,” and his comment about the Russian annexation of the Crimea was
not honestly reported. He was responding to a question, and he simply answered
that he “would be looking into that,” which would be an inadequate response
from an aware politician, but no one has claimed that he possesses awareness!
Hence, his statements should be treated cautiously. His answer about the Crimea
was in July, and he has not said more on the subject, even after further US
sanctions were applied against Russian projects in the Crimean on the 21st
of December. Whatever may be Trump’s intentions, improvement in US-Russian relations
would be limited by Congress.
Both chambers of Congress: The Senate and The
House of Representatives agreed upon the text of the "National Defense
Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2017," which was signed by Obama on
23rd December 2016, even though he
was disappointed by parts of it, such as the continuation of funding for
Guantanamo Bay despite Obama’s promise to close it! This Act determines funding
for the US Department of Defense. It is full of steps against Russia, which is
described in the US Senate Armed Services Committee summary as “a near-peer
competitor” that threatens the US “monopoly on advanced military technologies.”
The committee complained of “Russian nuclear provocations” and that the “United
States assured access to space continues to rely on Russian rocket engines, the
purchase of which provide financial benefit to aides and advisors to Vladimir
Putin – including individuals sanctioned by the United States – and subsidizes
the Russian military-industrial base. This is unacceptable.”
After
the 20th of January, US relations with Russia might improve, and
both countries could work together openly on some projects, but Putin’s
expansionist desires in Europe will continue to be opposed by the US, at least
until some greater threat emerges.
Dr Abdullah Robin
Written for Ar-Rayah Newspaper - Issue 111
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