There is a question I did not find it a convincing answer to it, which is: How Trump beats Clinton by a wide margin, given that opinion polls prior to the election on 08/11/2016 indicated Clinton was strikingly ahead of Trump? Also, Trump's statements during the election campaign were fiery on all fronts: on Europe, China, Saudi Arabia, and Muslims in general, and even Korea... There was praise in his remarks to Russia and Bashar... Does this mean that American policy will change, especially in Syria? Thank you, and Jazaka Allah Khair.
To become aware of the reality of the answers to the questions above, one must review the following:
US election law, contrary to the normal situation, which depends on people's opinions and measuring the number of votes, instead each state has a number of votes in the Electoral College consisting of 538 electors. The candidate who receives the most votes in a state even by 1%, s/he wins all the votes of the state. For example, if a state’s population is 2 million and it has 20 votes in the Electoral College, then if one candidate wins, for example 51% of the popular votes and the other wins 49%, the winner of the 51% receives all the 20 electoral votes, and not just the percentage of the actual votes that he won, that is, it is not (51% * 20 = 10.2), about 11 votes, and the other candidate 9 votes, rather he receives all the 20 votes…
Thus, a candidate may win the majority popular votes but may not win the majority electoral votes, as this depends on the state's population density, the number assigned to it in the electoral college votes, and the ratio in which a candidate wins the other.
Whereas polls are dominated by the popular votes, and not the Electoral votes, and therefore the majority of the popular votes may not agree with the majority of the electoral votes as we have mentioned, and this is what actually happened. “Clinton won a majority of: 60,556,142 total votes at 47.6%, while she received 232 electoral votes... Trump won less popular votes, 60,116,240 or 47.3%, but he won a majority of the electoral votes; 306 votes...” (US Presidential Elections 2016 – 8 November 2016).
On the other hand, the financial, political and security influence that accompanies the candidates, and the actions that do not take into account any value, rather, every candidate exhausts his energy without regard for the good and bad actions... All this affects voters into a certain direction. For example, stirring Clinton’s issue, “FBI Director James Comey has announced about 11 days before the election a new investigation regarding Clinton's use of email...” (BBC Arabic, 13/11/2016) This stirring had an impact in the elections so that Clinton declared “James Comey’s announcement of a new inquiry into her use of email while serving as secretary of state shortly before the election day had a significant political damage to her campaign”, she added, “Comey's letter raising doubts were groundless, he declared that I should face no charges but this had a negative impact on the election results." (BBC Arabic, 11/13/2016).
Moreover, Republicans were preparing the atmosphere that America needs change to save it because of what they stir of its declining international level under the rule of the Democrats. For example, Republican Dick Cheney, former US Vice President in a book written by him and his daughter Liz Cheney, former deputy assistant secretary of state, titled Exceptional: Why the World Needs a Powerful America in which excerpts were published in April (Reuters, 04/08/2016) and released in September, two months before the elections. Cheney writes, "Unfortunately, at a time when we are facing the clear and existing danger of a terrorist threat growing rapidly, President Obama weakened our strength dramatically and abandoned America's allies and emboldened our enemies." This is in addition to the financial community, political intelligence effects, and the hidden powers of each of the candidates! And then the exploitation of the Jewish lobby to win their votes. Trump said in an interview with a Jewish site, Israel HaYom newspaper published on 05/11/2016 that "his love of the Jews and their entity was for a very long time." He said, "We will protect Israel and you should not forget that Israel is the ray of the great hope for us in the region, so Israel is very important." Trump also promised to move the US Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem.
2. The election campaigns in capitalist countries, especially America, are the campaigns of "hanging the laundry" for each of the candidates, for they have no reservations about scandals, insults, abuses, and they search for all the flaws or sins of the candidates. However, this time it surpassed all the previous ones, for it has clearly shown the sinking level of the candidates and the decline of their rhetoric. It was dominated by personal accusations, involved reputations and it did not appear that they have ideas and effective solutions for America's worsening problems. The weighting of many Americans was who is bad and who is worse. This reflects the decline of America to the bottom, with the worsening internal and economic problems and crises and increasing divisions in the American society deepened by Trump's remarks... Colin Powell, a member of the Republican Party and former US Secretary, has described his party’s candidate, Trump as “a national disgrace and an international pariah...” (BBC Arabic, 14/09/2016). Whereas, Hillary Clinton has been considered by some as careless and unfit for presidency. The evidence for that is her use of her personal email server to send confidential information during her tenure as secretary of state. The FBI had investigated the US presidential candidate, Hillary Clinton (regarding her email, when she was secretary of state... and the Justice Department is considering whether this neglect constitutes an offence...) (BBC Arabic 02/07/2016). All of that shows the decline which America began to descend towards. Since it did find except these two candidates and they are the best of what it has, this indicates the impending fall of America... this is in terms of what characterizes the electoral statements of "hanging the laundry"...
In terms of credibility in implementing these statements, they are almost devoid of any significant credibility except by what fits the arrogance of the Republican style and the deception of the democratic style... So the electoral statements are not taken as a true measure of the implementation policy of the candidate after his election... This is sensed and witnessed, as Obama has filled his campaign shouting that he will close Guantanamo prison, which now remains at a standstill at the end of Obama’s two electoral terms! Even Trump himself has started to manipulate his statements:
- Trump called for a "total and complete ban of Muslims from entering the United States, to adopt special id cards mentioning their religion, and to a establish database for them and called for surveillance against mosques” in December 2015 (BBC, 07/12/2015), but he said afterwards about his promise, “It is just a suggestion not more...” (Al-Jazeera, 11/11/2016). However, he will remain using the style of threatening and intimidating Muslims, even if he will not implement his claims.
- In the Iranian nuclear file, he said he will revoke the agreement but is not expected to do so, instead he will show firmness towards it to fool the people that he is against Iran, for he realizes that Iran revolves in the orbit of America and implements its policies. Which indicates that he contradicts himself in his statements or that he deliberates contradiction to scare the counterparty and to delude the Americans and rouse their feelings that he is going to do something that the predecessors did not do. It is like he has taken that approach for deceiving to cover the defects of America and its inability to implement it.
- US President-elect Donald Trump said in an interview with CBS that he will deport some three million illegal immigrants out of the country... Trump added in the interview, "What we are going to do is get the people that are criminal and have criminal records — gang members, drug dealers — we have a lot of these people, probably 2 million, it could be even 3 million. We're getting them out of our country or we're going to incarcerate. But we're getting them out of our country, they're here illegally". The Republican president continued saying that once the border is “secure”, immigration officials will make a “determination” on the undocumented immigrants in the United States... And on the issue of building a wall between the United States and Mexico, Trump said that the wall he plans to build along the Mexican border may have some fence sections, saying that "it could be some fencing... but in some areas more appropriate to build a wall, I'm very good at this, it's called construction"...) (CBS, Alhorah, 13/11/2016). Clearly he is manipulating his remarks; so after he said the deportation of about three million he reverted to interpret and exclude, and even in the fence he reverted to give details of it being part wall, part fence... and this confirms that his style is threats and attacks on others and is willing to back down........
- Trump has already said that "NATO is obsolete," and pointed out that Washington's involvement alongside its European allies if they were attacked by Russia, contingent on the European financial contributions to the alliance's budget. (AFP; Alkhaleej Newspaper, 11/11/2016)
In the meantime, the current US president, Barack Obama said: “Trump told him he would remain "committed to a strong and robust NATO alliance…”” (BBC, 14/11/2016)
3- As for the change of US policy on key issues traded in the era of the former president, the broad outline is not expected to change, but the styles may change. The American system is controlled by different institutions, each with its own powers that increase or decrease, for example the President and his administration, the Pentagon, the Congress, the National Security Council, and the security services... and this affects maintaining the outline of US policy almost invariable with differences in styles. To clarify that I will address the subject of Syria mentioned in the question:
- Obama supported Bashar but does not openly declare it; instead he said there is no future for Bashar in Syria... Bashar is not to be negotiated with... we have no objection to negotiate with Bashar but there is no presence for him in the transition phase... no objection of his presence in the transition stage but has no role in the governance of Syria after that... and finally he said no objection for him to take part in the presidential election!! Whereas Trump he says it in one shot; Bashar is fighting terrorism so he is the active ingredient and the priority to eliminate terrorism and not Bashar. The Guardian Newspaper said that, Trump reiterated that the alliance with Russia and Syria to defeat ISIS is the preferred policy to deal with the Syrian crisis. Trump was quoted saying to the Wall Street Journal that he does not like Assad at all, "but to strengthen his regime is the best way to eliminate extremism, which flourished in the chaos of the civil war that threatens America" (Al-Jazeera, 13/11/2016). Trump had expressed his opinion regarding the Syrian crisis in an interview published in the New York Times in July, saying, "I believe that we must first get rid of “Daesh” before getting rid of Assad." As for what he promised in his campaign to send tens of thousands of soldiers to Syria and Iraq to fight ISIS, he said he would send with them NATO forces as well as... News agencies reported on 04/11/2016 Trump's remarks in which he said: “We will use military force only in cases where it is vital from the point of view of ensuring the national security of the United States...”, and this is what every former and coming American president says, and they have no hesitation to brutally aggress on any country pretext of national security even if enveloped by blatant lie!.
- Also, Obama was preventing the supply of effective weapons for the opposition citing the fear of them falling into the hands of terrorists... and Trump declares preventing weapons from the opposition in one word and does not care if they fall in the hands of the opposition, or not. The Guardian Newspaper said Trump expressed his intention to end US support for the armed Syrian opposition despite their request of help from him... (Al-Jazeera, 13/11/2016).
- Obama also excludes Europe from the Syrian crisis, so he excludes it from Lausanne, but the next day appeases it with a meeting which neither nourishes nor avails against hunger.... But Trump is not concerned of appeasing Europe, instead he yells in the face of Europe like nothing! And doesn't care about their reactions despite their severity. French president Hollande said about Trump: “He makes you want to retch" and the British Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson described him as a "clearly out of his mind". Italy’s Prime Minister Renzi considered Trump a man "who invests a lot in a policy of fear". The European Parliament President Martin Schulz, said "Trump is not just a problem for the EU, but for the whole world."...) (Asharq Al Awsat, 11/11/2016). German Defence Minister Ursula von der Leyen addressed Trump through the German TV Z.D.F. on 11/11/2016 in response to Trump's statement that Washington's involvement alongside its European allies if they were attacked by Russia, contingent on the European financial contributions to the alliance's budget, saying: “This is not something where someone can say: ‘The past does not matter to me. The values that we champion together do not matter to me, but instead try to get as much money out of it (NATO) as possible...’ NATO is not a business, it is not a company...” (Reuters, 10/11/2016)
- Obama relies on Russia for its brutal attacks on Syria, but he declares to be against Russia's brutal attacks...! From the aspect of bluffing and trickery to the opposition... but Trump depends on Russia in broad daylight and praises Putin and even puts him ahead of his president Obama and his rival Clinton! He says, “Putin has been a leader far more than our president [Obama] has been...” (BBC, 14/11/2016)... Trump added that Putin has outsmarted Clinton, he has outsmarted her in Syria... (Sky News Arabic, 10/20/2016). Thus, Obama and Trump both deal with Russia to serve the interests of America but with different styles helped by Russia’s inferiority complex to become a European or a Western country and to return a superpower and restore glory to the era of the Soviet Union. Russia's parliament erupted in applause upon the announcement of Trump’s victory, which confirms the severity of the Russian stupidity!
From all of the aforementioned, it shows that the broad outlines of the US politics do not differ between the Republican Party and the Democratic Party, but the styles vary.
4. The reason for this is attributed to the background of the emergence of the two parties. The Republican Party does not care much to appear in the democratic impressions that they loud-mouth, but is predominated by a cowboy attitude saturated with arrogance and it has emerged from this milieu and still it prevails it... And the cowboy culture tends to the person who shows strength, beats and kills the other, blows up here and there, and spoil this and steals that and no one can oppose or challenge him, but should keep silent and surrender. Nor do they care about the crimes of killing innocent people, as they are prevalent in their country, and they love to bear arms and use them as fancies. The US Senate rejected on Monday a proposal of the Democratic Party that allows expanding investigations of the criminal and psychological history for those interested in purchasing individual weapons... (and the Republicans voted on Monday, 20/06/2016 against this measure, which Democrats are trying to pass for years, and vote result was 44 with and 56 against the proposal...) (Russia Today, 21/06/2016). Thus, the Republicans do not care about the regulation of gun possession because of the control of producers and arms dealers lobby on the Republican... From this standpoint Trump’s style comes, for it is the style of the man who appears like a strong man and his country is powerful to regain its prestige through threats and extortion, whether he implements them or not and retracts and resorts to another style. For he is like how he said, "I want to be unpredictable." (Reuters 10/11/2016). Thus, he will resort to intimidating others to make them accept the American policy or surrender to it or fear opposing it, thus his remarks came floundering in four directions! It was clear his hatred of Islam and Muslims... and went down in China square... did not escape from him his followers in South Korea, Saudi Arabia and Iran... and he strongly and provocatively attacked Europe as if he deliberately does that! This is in terms of the style of arrogance... but he will also use the traders’ scammers style where he will blackmail other nations and want to win and make others pay America the costs and more. Therefore, it came in his remarks:
- Saudi Arabia is a rich country and they should pay for what they get from us in politics and security. He said, “Saudi Arabia is going to be in big trouble pretty soon, and they are going to need help, if it weren’t for us, they wouldn’t be here, they wouldn’t exist.” (NBC TV, 19/ 8/2016) in a move to blackmailing it and takes all its deposits in America, especially since Congress passed a law called Gasta that forces Saudi Arabia to pay compensation to the Americans on the of 9/11 in 2001 events in the World Trade Center in New York.
- Trump said during his campaign that he wants to withdraw US troops stationed in South Korea as the last did not pay a greater share of the cost of the deployment of these forces, which has a population of 28,500 US troops in joint defense against North Korea framework.
- He asked Europe to pay more in the NATO budget, and said that ("NATO is obsolete," and pointed out that Washington's involvement alongside its European allies if they were attacked by Russia, contingent on European financial contributions to the alliance's budget.) (AFP... Khaleej Newspaper, 11/11/2016 CE)
- With regards to the climate, he said, “Environmental constraints on the companies making them less competitive in the global market, and he described climate change as hoax.” Thus, the extent of the financial blackmail that Trump seeks even with his clients and followers becomes apparent!
5. Whereas, the Democratic Party is predominated by deception, appearing in the false democratic impressions and imitating the English style. It provides poison enveloped with fake fat, and kills you with a smile, while the Republican party offers the pure poison, so it kills you while biting on its teeth... Democratic presidents therefore are better able to deceit and win the trust of dupes, whereas Republican presidents do not deceive anyone because their enmity is blatantly declared. This can be seen when reviewing people’s vision of examples of not-so-distant history of Presidents of both parties; thus, Reagan, Nixon, Bush Senior and Junior from the Republican party and their arrogance especially towards Islam and Muslims in an exposed provocative aggressive manner and their fangs are prominent... and Kennedy, Carter, Clinton and Obama from the Democratic Party and their cunningness, deceit and guile to Islam and Muslims and their grins are transparent... Mr. Bush utters by the crusade war whereas Clinton cites a Quranic verse in Cairo... and both are plotting a scheme against Islam...! That is just as we said earlier: "Democratic presidents therefore better able to deceive and win the trust of dupes, whereas Republican presidents do not deceive anyone because their enmity is blatantly declared."
6. Even in the logo of the two parties, there is a difference in connotation, fits what we have said. Since the American cartoonist - German origin - Thomas Nast in (1870 and 1874), published a drawing in Harper's Magazine showing a picture of a donkey wearing a lion’s body to scare a group of animals, among them a giant wild elephant that smashes his surroundings... Since then the donkey has become the Democratic party logo, and the elephant became the logo of the Republican party, and the two logos reflect the image of the two parties. Thus, it was circulated during the election campaign in 2008, two images that show in the first a donkey embodying the Democratic party logo, ridden by a woman in yellow dress symbolizing Hillary Clinton, and behind her a black young man symbolizing Barack Obama, and each one of them offers a carrot to a donkey tied at the tip of a long stick, which was an expression of the time for an election based on a "carrot and stick" strategy of the Democratic party. In contrast, another image appeared in the same campaign which highlighted the two candidates, too, in reference to the time of John McCain and Mitt Romney - a Republican – riding an elephant (representing the party logo) and both of them were beating it with sticks symbolizing the conservative Republican politics that rely on the "firmness and force."
Thus the actions of Trump are not a new innovation of the actions of the Republican candidates, except to the extent of personal characteristics that distinguish a person from another, but the general characteristics of the Republican Party remains almost applicable to all the party's candidates with the exception of personal characteristics as mentioned above.
A. The broad outlines of US policy established in the era of the former president does not change any significantly, especially towards Islam and Muslims, and more specifically towards the Syrian crisis, whether the president is a Republican or a Democrat, because the American policy is determined by institutions, each with some of influence that increases or decreases …
B. The electoral statements are not a measure for the practical implementation of international relations, or solutions to external problems …
C. America will continue to use Russia in its war on Muslims who revolted against its systems and its regimes. As well as to use it to counter Europe, because it wants to limit the rebellion Europeans as it considers them as its younger brothers and itself is the big brother, and to stop them from distracting its projects and policies and in the areas of its influence, and their independent work outside its will and its umbrella and their attempt to form a political, military and economic independent force.
D. Among the new administration’s styles are intimidation, ridiculing and attacking on those who it counts enemies, as well as practicing arrogance and haughtiness. Therefore, the best approach for other countries which respect themselves is not to comply and not to succumb to its pressure and not to fear its threats for they are all but a storm in a teacup. Instead, they should proceed in defiance of America and confront it and work to remove it from the area. This is because when America was in its peak during Bush Jr. era, France formed an axis with other nations to oppose America and it was able to affect it, so how about today when it is declining to the bottom?!
E. It seems that the US administration headed by Trump will use extortion as it seemed to compel states to pay, for it is left with no other trick but this. In this case, the other states should not surrender to its blackmail and to excite the public against it.
F. As for the revolting people of the Islamic Ummah who are a grand and solid thorn in the throat of America, haunting it and does not let it sleep quietly, they should continue their revolution and struggle, and they are victorious, bi'ithnillah, over America and on all the colonial powers. For they have rubbed its nose in the sands of Iraq and the soil of Afghanistan... and they should know that America is weaker than the spider house, it has worn and eroded, and is tapering towards the fall. However, the Ummah must be caution of the American agents, the followers and the subordinates, for they are the gates for America in the Muslim lands... And that the Ummah should head toward the conscious sincere people who will lead it, bi'ithnillah Allah, to the salvation, the liberation and the glory, and returns back as it was holding the glory from its two pillars:
﴿كُنْتُمْ خَيْرَ أُمَّةٍ أُخْرِجَتْ لِلنَّاسِ تَأْمُرُونَ بِالْمَعْرُوفِ وَتَنْهَوْنَ عَنِ الْمُنْكَرِ وَتُؤْمِنُونَ بِاللَّهِ﴾ “You were the best nations ever to be raised for mankind: you enjoin what is right (ma’roof), forbid what is wrong (munkar), and believe in Allah.” [Al-i-Imran: 110]
«... ثُمَّ تَكُونُ جَبْرِيَّةً، فَتَكُونُ مَا شَاءَ اللَّهُ أَنْ تَكُونَ، ثُمَّ يَرْفَعُهَا إِذَا شَاءَ أَنْ يَرْفَعَهَا، ثُمَّ تَكُونُ خِلَافَةٌ عَلَى مِنْهَاجِ النُّبُوَّةِ» “Then there will be an oppressive rule, and it will last for as long as Allah wishes, then He will lift it if He wishes. Then there will be Khilafah according to the method of Prophethood.” (Narrated by Abu Dawood Tayaalisi)... And that is no great matter for Allah.
18th Safar 1438 AH