Question:
Hollande described the Russian airstrikes on Aleppo,
"is truly a war crime." (BBC, 20/10/2016), after the inauguration of
the Orthodox Russian Cultural Religious Center ceremony held in the absence of
Putin on 19/10/2016. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has announced on 11/10/2016
that President Putin decided to cancel his official visit to Paris, scheduled
for the 19th of this month, this was following the announcement of
the French president of his reluctance to welcome Putin in Paris, after the use
of Russia's veto against the French project concerning Syria resulting in
tensions in their relations. What is the reason for this tension? And what impact
will it have on Russian-EU relations? Will these events cause a change in the
international actors in the Syrian crisis? In other words, will there be a role
for the European Union and a decline of the Russian role? Jazak Allah Khair.
Answer:
In order
to have clarity for the reason for the tension, and whether its impact will
result in a change in the international actors ... we need to review the
following:
First: The idea of an international partnership yielded which the
Obama administration executed by assigning Russia to carry out an international
mission in Syria, and this is a fact in Washington, and it was uttered by some
Russian politicians when they talked about American arrogance when discussing the
issue of Syria with the Russians. America was behind entrusting Russia with the
task of killing and destruction in Syria ... America was also behind the
exclusion of the European countries, especially Britain and France, and stopping
them from intervening in resolving the Syrian crisis.
In
the meantime, Russia was confident that this international mission will
transform Russia automatically to a functioning state on the international
stage, but it would be surprised whenever America refused its involvement in
other issues, even the Ukrainian crisis which is a very sensitive issue to
Russia. The United States believes that cooperation with Russia in Syria does
not lead to the recognition of Russian interests in Ukraine, Syria is one issue
and Ukraine is another issue.
Thus, Russia has emerged internationally because of
its intervention in Syria and restored the presence of its military to the forefront,
and despite the criticism of some politicians in Washington to the policy of
the International partnership. There was a document written by fifty diplomats
at the US State Department, which demanded the administration to implement a
unilateral solution to the Syrian crisis, i.e. without Russia, but using Russia
was the implemented policy by Washington. This was the US policy, and its
outcome of the emergence of Russia on the international arena is what incited
major outrage in Western Europe.
Second: Russia saw its international position strengthened because of Syria,
and the robe of grandeur has returned to it through its military presence and
the Kerry-Lavrov meetings about Syria. Thus it played along with America to isolate
Europe from Syria, Russia is happy to limit handling the crisis between it and
America, especially that it is an outsider party to the zone of America's
influence commissioned by Washington... But internationally Russia has emerged
as America, that it does not care about the major countries in Europe, and probably
the European countries were waiting to see that it does not follow Washington,
but instead to support them in breaking the American hegemony on the
international position. Thus, Russia’s full following with America enraged
Europe greatly.
Third: America is the real barrier in excluding Europe from the
Syrian crisis and has limited handling of the crisis between it and Russia, but
Europe has recently appeared to have found a way to break through this barrier hoping
it will allow it to intervene in the Syrian crisis in the following ways:
1- During
the past months, America was arduously seeking to make advancements in
resolving the crisis in Syria, so as to achieve success and attribute it to
President Obama who will be leaving soon, as well as to support the Democrats’
campaign of Hillary Clinton in the US presidential election. This led to the
United States-Russia agreements and the intensifying of Russian brutal bombing of
the city of Aleppo. The last of the Russian-American agreements was on the cessation
of hostilities in Syria on 09/09/2016.
2- The
people of Syria rejected this agreement, i.e. they rejected the American plan,
and they were followed by all the faithful revolutionaries, even those who have
some decency could not bear the humiliation of the agreement, and they too
rejected it to the extent that the rejection reached its peak and they refused
to cooperate with US Special Forces introduced by Erdogan in the Operation Euphrates
Shield. America saw that the bombardment of
Aleppo must therefore intensify in brutality hoping that it will affect the
people of Syria and the resistance and subdue them to agree to the American plan
or to at least to a significant part of it, to be written as a success for
Obama before the end of his term ... and because America portrays itself to be
with the opposition, it has escalated tensions with Russia, so that America appears
to be against the brutal Russian bombing. This was until the American declaration
of ending the cooperation with Russia in Syria.
3- And
so the war of words between Russia and the United States peaked in the General
Assembly meetings in New York on the 20th and 22/09/2016... This
renewed the American predicament in Syria and led America to have a ceasefire i.e.
the Kerry-Lavrov failure to reach a settlement and America’s declaration that
it is looking for other options. This was the opportunity, which Europe found
to break through America’s barrier. The European states started to herald in
New York’s General Assembly meetings the end of the Kerry-Lavrov solution to resolve
the Syrian crisis, and held on tightly to this opportunity to play a role
alongside America in the Syrian crisis... Then it sought to increase the rift
between it and Russia in hopes to persuade America to push Russia away from
Syria, this is the reason for the new tensions between Europe and Russia.
Fourth: It was natural in this new atmosphere and with the
European vision in mind that Europe tries to enter through the crack in the
American barrier, by giving statements and making European initiatives to try
to enter the Syrian crisis, and France was at the forefront, this included:
1-Since
America’s official announcement of the end of US cooperation with Russia in
Syria, France rushed forward and announced the French project in the Security
Council to enforce the cessation of hostilities, it meant Russia by that.
France paved the way for its project by the visit of its foreign minister, Ayrault,
to Moscow on 5-6/10/2016 to convince the Russian side of the French project. The
French project calling for an immediate end of aerial bombardment of Aleppo,
which is opposite of the US-Russian previous agreement of the necessity of more
strikes to subdue the revolutionaries. Russia was embarrassed during this visit
by the French minister; because on one side it was saying that the French
project simplifies things, and on the other side it was wary of its refusal. In
continuation of the efforts of France to achieve the success of the project, the
French foreign minister also visited Washington after Moscow to ensure US
support for the project in the Security Council.
2- Russia’s veto thwarted all the French efforts in the
Security Council on 08/10/2016... This had incited tensions between Russia and
France, along with European countries, which saw in Russia a new barricade that
prevents them from accessing the Syrian crisis. As if America has deliberately
created an opportunity to tempt the European countries to make this move, after
it ensured Russia’s firm position on the role that it assigned for it.
3- The visit, which was planned for Russian President Putin,
to Paris on 19/10/2016 coincided at the same time with this tension in
Russian-French relations, and despite being a private visit of the opening of a
Russian cultural center and an orthodox church, since it had been agreed to the
participation of the French President with Putin during the opening ceremony.
Because of this tension, the French President on 10/10/2016, was first to
declare his reluctance to receive Putin during his private visit, at a time
when the Kremlin announced from Moscow the continuation of arrangements as usual
of the Russian president’s visit, and so Russia was in an awkward position. When
France announced that the French President will only discuss with Putin during
the visit the Syrian crisis, and he will not share the opening ceremony, which
was scheduled out of courtesy. The French leader said he did not consider the
possibility of his Russian counterpart’s visit to Paris except to exclusively discuss
the Syrian file, and Hollande let him know he wouldn't take part in the opening
of the new center and was only interested in talks about Syria. (Russia Today,
11/10/2016). Russia was furious and Moscow announced on 11/10/2016 the
cancellation of the Russian president's visit to Paris. Thus, Russian-French
tensions were high between the two countries.
4- French escalation continued: “French President Francois
Hollande has said he does not plan to ease the pressure on Russia over its
support for the Syrian government in its fight against rebels, but that he
remains ready to meet President Vladimir Putin to discuss the war, a regional
French newspaper reported on Sunday.” (Reuters, 10/16/2016)
5-( The French
President Francois Hollande and German Chancellor Angela Merkel strongly
criticized on Thursday, 20/10/2016, the air strikes by Russia and the Syrian
regime on the city of Aleppo, during a joint press conference with Merkel at
the end of the French - German – Russian summit in Berlin. Hollande described these
airstrikes as a "true war crime" ... For her part, Merkel described
the Russian and Syrian raids on Aleppo as "inhumane" ...) (BBC
Arabic, 20/10/2016)
• These are the reasons for the escalation of tensions in the
French-Russian relations, which have become the forefront of the events, especially
the Syrian crisis ... especially that France, like Russia, is not good at
political maneuvering, i.e. any tension leads to more tension and can reach to
the point of straining of bilateral relations
...
Fifth: As for the impact of the tensions of the Russian-French
relations on European relations in general and the implications of those
relationships is as follows:
1-The
Russian-French tension is a strain in Russia's relations with the whole of
Europe, especially the effective European countries, Britain, and to some
extent Germany. The position of France and its decision in the Security Council
represents the European Union, including Britain, which is still a member, but
Britain coordinates its policy with France greatly. France with its usual rash
and uncalculated boldness represent the spearhead of the European Union and
Britain in particular, in international politics, and more of an indication of that,
is the speed in which the Russian-French tension turned into a British-Russian
tension, "Shortly after the Security Council vote, the British representative
confirmed strongly in his speech that the Russian veto represents the
"shame" that we know of the actions of Russia" (Arab News, 8/10/2016).
Also the Middle East Online stated on 11/10/2016, "If Russia continues on
its current path then I think that great country is in danger of becoming a
pariah nation," Johnson told parliament, calling on anti-war protest
groups to demonstrate outside the Russian embassy. "I'd certainly like to
see demonstrations outside the Russian embassy," he said. (Reuters) All
the available evidence points to the responsibility of Russia for these
terrible acts, referring to an attack on a convoy of humanitarian aid. Russia
responded the next day according to the Russian Sputnik on 12/10/2016, “The
Russian Defense Ministry considered Johnson’s claims are caused by a
neurological disease that affects all those harboring hostility to others. A
spokesman for the Russian Defense Ministry, Igor Konashenkov said that the
allegations by Johnson represent symptoms of "Russophobic hysteria" which
is inherent in some of Britain's political leaders"... and the statement
that we mentioned above: “Hollande described these airstrikes as a "true war
crime" ... For her part, Merkel described the Russian and Syrian raids on
Aleppo as "inhumane" ...” (BBC Arabic, 20/10/2016)
I.e.
tension with Russia continues on to include the European Union, and there are
more loud voices in Europe calling to put pressure on Russia and the imposition
of new sanctions over it because of Syria. Thus, France, Britain and other
European countries are moving towards further strained relations with Russia,
expressing its rejection of Russia and its policies, and all in the hope that
these countries will have a place in the Syrian crisis as being the number one
issue internationally. These countries have no good intentions for Muslims, the
issue for the European countries are not the massacres committed by Russia
against the Muslims in Syria, since the positions of these countries are one of
indifference to the bloodshed flowing as rivers in Syria during the past six
years, rather their issue is that these countries want to be involved, as
superpower countries, in resolving the Syrian issue
...
2- Events have
accelerated in the European Union with the tension in the French-Russian
relations. “Britain and France called on the European Union to condemn Russia's
air campaign in Syria and to impose further sanctions on Moscow ... the French
Foreign Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault said that the pressure on Russia should be
strong, pointing out that showing a unified position, the EU can move forward
to stop what he described as massacres of the population in Aleppo. Britain and
France want to impose a travel ban on twenty more Syrians, as well as adding 12
Russians to the sanctions list, which includes another two hundred, including
three Iranians, for their role in current conflict in Syria ...” (Al-Jazeera,
17/10/2016). The subject of financial sanctions is practiced without issuing a sanctions’
resolution: “Russia Today news network announced that a British Bank froze all
its bank accounts, without stating the reason behind this decision. RT quoted
the chief editor Margarita Simonyan as saying - in a tweet via her twitter account
- "They blocked all our accounts in Britain, all of the accounts! the
decision is not subject to revision." ...” (Al-Jazeera, 17/10/2016) ... “and
the European leaders will discuss their relations with Russia in Brussels on
Thursday, 20/10/2016, and one of the suggested options is to impose sanctions on
Moscow as a result of its actions in Syria ...”(Reuters Arabic, 19/10/2016)
3- If
the tension increased in the French and European relations with Russia, then
the gateway of conflict between Russia and Europe will increase, and its
repercussions will show in Ukraine or any other area in Eastern Europe, and
European countries may impose sanctions on Russia. The causes of the increased
tension in Russian- Europe relations are many, and not limited to the Syrian
crisis even with its international importance, and if Russia did not take the
initiative to show prudence in dealing with Europe, it will be the bigger loser
of the deterioration of its relations with Europe. With its domination in the
Syrian crisis, Russia does not show sufficient prudence in its international
relations, at a time when the world is talking about war crimes in Syria,
Russia increases the pace of bombardment of Aleppo, and it stems from Russian
political short sight. They are reassured today due to their relations with
America, and they know that the apparent tension in Russia's relations with the
United States regarding Syria is not real. Amid this tension the US State
Department announced that a meeting between Kerry and Lavrov will take place in
Lausanne, and it was already held on 15/10/2016 after it engaged some followers
and supporters to save face because they had already announced the suspension
of meetings with Russia yet it is now meeting with it! At a time when it
prevents Europe from attending!
4- It seems that Russia has realized
its predicament, the United States made it the spearhead of the brutal bombing,
and Europe took advantage of this artificial tension between America and
Russia, and escalated the position against the Russian brutal attacks ...
Russia wanted to soften the European pressure, so it began to speak of a truce.
“Russia has announced a "humanitarian pause" in which it will stop
its bombardment of the Syrian city of Aleppo. Russia has said it will stop the
bombardment of the city of Aleppo next Thursday20/10/2016 for eight hours,
starting at eight in the morning local time, 5 am GMT
until four o’clock in the afternoon... This move comes in
conjunction with the news of the killing of 14 people from one family, during the
aerial bombardment of Aleppo...” (BBC, 17/10/2016) Putin also agreed to discuss the Syrian issue
with the Europeans after previously rejecting to do so with Hollande: “The
French presidency announced yesterday, that the French president Francois
Hollande and the Russian president Vladimir Putin and German Chancellor Angela
Merkel, will hold a "workshop" dealing with the Syrian crisis, today
on Wednesday in Berlin ...” (Agencies, Khaleej Newspaper, 19/10/2016).
* Thus, the tension in the French-Russian
relations has reflected on the European Union and pushed Russia in trouble with
Europe, and it is trying to find a way out of this impasse. It met with EU and
discussed the Syrian crisis after refusing to discuss it with Hollande, which
caused the cancelation of Putin's visit and the escalation in the heat of
events more than before ...
Sixth: Will the result of these events
change the regional or international parties involved in the Syria crisis? It
is expected that no change will take place, the international actors will
remain the same: i.e. America and its proxies Russia, Iran, Turkey, Saudi
Arabia, will remain the same. And the European Union does not have much of a
chance, despite the escalation in Europe’s tone against Russia and its
strenuous attempt to get closer to America, to have a role in the Syrian
crisis. America called for the Lausanne meeting on 15/10/2016 and excluded
Europe from attending, Russia, was close to American in that meeting, despite
what was shown by the Americans in terms of breaking up with Russia and
strained relations! When America noticed that Europe is annoyed by this,
America called for a meeting of consolation on 16/10/2016 with Europe without
the presence of the other parties and chatted with them, nothing significant happened in that meeting, ended pretty much as it started.
Therefore
it is likely that the international role in the Syrian crisis will remain
confined to the United States, and Russia’s proxies, and furthermore the followers.
This
is in terms of international and regional parties, they plot and scheme but in
Ash-Sham and other places there are men faithful to Allah (swt), honest with
the Messenger of Allah (saw) who would not enable America and Russia and their
followers to achieve their cunning evil plans for stability in ash-Sham, Allah
willing, be like those who preceded them:
﴿قَدْ مَكَرَ الَّذِينَ مِنْ قَبْلِهِمْ فَأَتَى اللَّهُ
بُنْيَانَهُمْ مِنَ الْقَوَاعِدِ فَخَرَّ عَلَيْهِمُ السَّقْفُ مِنْ فَوْقِهِمْ
وَأَتَاهُمُ الْعَذَابُ مِنْ حَيْثُ لَا يَشْعُرُونَ﴾
“Those
before them had already plotted, but Allah came at their building from the
foundations, so the roof fell upon them from above them, and the punishment
came to them from where they did not perceive.” [An-Nahl: 26]
19
Muharram 1438 AH
20/10/2016
CE
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