Question:
There
is a question I did not find it a convincing answer to it, which is: How Trump
beats Clinton by a wide margin, given that opinion polls prior to the election
on 08/11/2016 indicated Clinton was strikingly ahead of Trump? Also, Trump's
statements during the election campaign were fiery on all fronts: on Europe,
China, Saudi Arabia, and Muslims in general, and even Korea... There was praise
in his remarks to Russia and Bashar... Does this mean that American policy will
change, especially in Syria? Thank you, and Jazaka Allah Khair.
Answer:
To
become aware of the reality of the answers to the questions above, one must
review the following:
US
election law, contrary to the normal situation, which depends on people's
opinions and measuring the number of votes, instead each state has a number of
votes in the Electoral College consisting of 538 electors. The candidate who receives
the most votes in a state even by 1%, s/he wins all the votes of the state. For
example, if a state’s population is 2 million and it has 20 votes in the
Electoral College, then if one candidate wins, for example 51% of the popular votes
and the other wins 49%, the winner of the 51% receives all the 20 electoral votes,
and not just the percentage of the actual votes that he won, that is, it is not
(51% * 20 = 10.2), about 11 votes, and the other candidate 9 votes, rather he receives
all the 20 votes…
Thus,
a candidate may win the majority popular votes but may not win the majority
electoral votes, as this depends on the state's population density, the number
assigned to it in the electoral college votes, and the ratio in which a
candidate wins the other.
Whereas
polls are dominated by the popular votes, and not the Electoral votes, and
therefore the majority of the popular votes may not agree with the majority of
the electoral votes as we have mentioned, and this is what actually happened. “Clinton
won a majority of: 60,556,142 total votes at 47.6%, while she received 232 electoral
votes... Trump won less popular votes, 60,116,240 or 47.3%, but he
won a majority of the electoral votes; 306 votes...” (US Presidential Elections
2016 – 8 November 2016).
On
the other hand, the financial, political and security influence that
accompanies the candidates, and the actions that do not take into account any
value, rather, every candidate exhausts his energy without regard for the good
and bad actions... All this affects voters into a certain direction. For example,
stirring Clinton’s issue, “FBI Director James Comey has announced about 11 days
before the election a new investigation regarding Clinton's use of email...”
(BBC Arabic, 13/11/2016) This stirring had an impact in the elections so that Clinton
declared “James Comey’s announcement of a new inquiry into her use of email
while serving as secretary of state shortly before the election day had a
significant political damage to her campaign”, she added, “Comey's letter
raising doubts were groundless, he declared that I should face no charges but
this had a negative impact on the election results." (BBC Arabic,
11/13/2016).
Moreover,
Republicans were preparing the atmosphere that America needs change to save it
because of what they stir of its declining international level under the rule
of the Democrats. For example, Republican Dick Cheney, former US Vice President
in a book written by him and his daughter Liz Cheney, former deputy assistant
secretary of state, titled Exceptional: Why the World Needs a Powerful America
in which excerpts were published in April (Reuters, 04/08/2016) and
released in September, two months before the elections. Cheney writes,
"Unfortunately, at a time when we are facing the clear and existing danger
of a terrorist threat growing rapidly, President Obama weakened our strength
dramatically and abandoned America's allies and emboldened our enemies." This
is in addition to the financial community, political intelligence effects, and the
hidden powers of each of the candidates! And then the exploitation of the
Jewish lobby to win their votes. Trump said in an interview with a Jewish site,
Israel HaYom newspaper published on 05/11/2016 that "his love of the Jews
and their entity was for a very long time." He said, "We will protect
Israel and you should not forget that Israel is the ray of the great hope for
us in the region, so Israel is very important." Trump also promised to
move the US Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem.
2.
The election campaigns in capitalist countries, especially America, are the
campaigns of "hanging the laundry" for each of the candidates, for
they have no reservations about scandals, insults, abuses, and they search for all
the flaws or sins of the candidates. However, this time it surpassed all the
previous ones, for it has clearly shown the sinking level of the candidates and
the decline of their rhetoric. It was dominated by personal accusations, involved
reputations and it did not appear that they have ideas and effective solutions for
America's worsening problems. The weighting of many Americans was who is bad
and who is worse. This reflects the decline of America to the bottom, with the
worsening internal and economic problems and crises and increasing divisions in
the American society deepened by Trump's remarks... Colin Powell, a member of
the Republican Party and former US Secretary, has described his party’s candidate,
Trump as “a national disgrace and an international pariah...” (BBC Arabic, 14/09/2016).
Whereas, Hillary Clinton has been considered by some as careless and unfit for presidency.
The evidence for that is her use of her personal email server to send
confidential information during her tenure as secretary of state. The FBI had investigated
the US presidential candidate, Hillary Clinton (regarding her email, when she
was secretary of state... and the Justice Department is considering whether
this neglect constitutes an offence...) (BBC Arabic 02/07/2016). All of that
shows the decline which America began to descend towards. Since it did find except
these two candidates and they are the best of what it has, this indicates the impending
fall of America... this is in terms of what characterizes the electoral
statements of "hanging the laundry"...
In
terms of credibility in implementing these statements, they are almost devoid
of any significant credibility except by what fits the arrogance of the
Republican style and the deception of the democratic style... So the electoral
statements are not taken as a true measure of the implementation policy of the
candidate after his election... This is sensed and witnessed, as Obama has
filled his campaign shouting that he will close Guantanamo prison, which now
remains at a standstill at the end of Obama’s two electoral terms! Even Trump
himself has started to manipulate his statements:
-
Trump called for a "total and complete ban of Muslims from entering the
United States, to adopt special id cards mentioning their religion, and to a establish
database for them and called for surveillance against mosques” in December 2015
(BBC, 07/12/2015), but he said afterwards about his promise, “It is just a
suggestion not more...” (Al-Jazeera, 11/11/2016). However, he will remain using
the style of threatening and intimidating Muslims, even if he will not
implement his claims.
- In the Iranian nuclear file, he said he will revoke the
agreement but is not expected to do so, instead he will show firmness towards
it to fool the people that he is against Iran, for he realizes that Iran revolves
in the orbit of America and implements its policies. Which indicates that he
contradicts himself in his statements or that he deliberates contradiction to
scare the counterparty and to delude the Americans and rouse their feelings
that he is going to do something that the predecessors did not do. It is like he
has taken that approach for deceiving to cover the defects of America and its
inability to implement it.
-
US President-elect Donald Trump said in an interview with CBS that he will deport some three million
illegal immigrants out of the country... Trump added in the interview, "What
we are going to do is get the people that are criminal and have criminal
records — gang members, drug dealers — we have a lot of these people, probably
2 million, it could be even 3 million. We're getting them out of our country or
we're going to incarcerate. But we're getting them out of our country, they're
here illegally". The Republican president continued saying that once the
border is “secure”, immigration officials will make a “determination” on the undocumented
immigrants in the United States... And on the issue of building a wall between
the United States and Mexico, Trump said that the wall he plans to build along
the Mexican border may have some fence sections, saying that "it could be
some fencing... but in some areas more appropriate to build a wall, I'm very
good at this, it's called construction"...) (CBS, Alhorah, 13/11/2016). Clearly he is manipulating his
remarks; so after he said the deportation of about three million he reverted to
interpret and exclude, and even in the fence he reverted to give details of it being
part wall, part fence... and this confirms that his style is threats and attacks
on others and is willing to back down........
-
Trump has already said that "NATO is obsolete," and pointed out that
Washington's involvement alongside its European allies if they were attacked by
Russia, contingent on the European financial contributions to the alliance's
budget. (AFP; Alkhaleej Newspaper, 11/11/2016)
In
the meantime, the current US president, Barack Obama said: “Trump told him he
would remain "committed to a strong and robust NATO alliance…”” (BBC,
14/11/2016)
3-
As for the change of US policy on key issues traded in the era of the former
president, the broad outline is not expected to change, but the styles may
change. The American system is controlled by different institutions, each with
its own powers that increase or decrease, for example the President and his
administration, the Pentagon, the Congress, the National Security Council, and
the security services... and this affects maintaining the outline of US policy
almost invariable with differences in styles. To clarify that I will address
the subject of Syria mentioned in the question:
-
Obama supported Bashar but does not openly declare it; instead he said there is
no future for Bashar in Syria... Bashar is not to be negotiated with... we have
no objection to negotiate with Bashar but there is no presence for him in the
transition phase... no objection of his presence in the transition stage but
has no role in the governance of Syria after that... and finally he said no
objection for him to take part in the presidential election!! Whereas Trump he
says it in one shot; Bashar is fighting terrorism so he is the active
ingredient and the priority to eliminate terrorism and not Bashar. The Guardian
Newspaper said that, Trump reiterated that the alliance with Russia and Syria
to defeat ISIS is the preferred policy to deal with the Syrian crisis. Trump
was quoted saying to the Wall Street Journal that he does not like Assad at
all, "but to strengthen his regime is the best way to eliminate extremism,
which flourished in the chaos of the civil war that threatens America"
(Al-Jazeera, 13/11/2016). Trump had expressed his opinion regarding the Syrian
crisis in an interview published in the New York Times in July, saying, "I
believe that we must first get rid of “Daesh” before getting rid of
Assad." As for what he promised in his campaign to send tens of thousands
of soldiers to Syria and Iraq to fight ISIS, he said he would send with them
NATO forces as well as... News agencies reported on 04/11/2016 Trump's remarks
in which he said: “We will use military force only in cases where it is vital
from the point of view of ensuring the national security of the United States...”,
and this is what every former and coming American president says, and they have
no hesitation to brutally aggress on any country pretext of national security
even if enveloped by blatant lie!.
-
Also, Obama was preventing the supply of effective weapons for the opposition
citing the fear of them falling into the hands of terrorists... and Trump declares
preventing weapons from the opposition in one word and does not care if they
fall in the hands of the opposition, or not. The Guardian Newspaper said Trump
expressed his intention to end US support for the armed Syrian opposition
despite their request of help from him... (Al-Jazeera, 13/11/2016).
-
Obama also excludes Europe from the Syrian crisis, so he excludes it from
Lausanne, but the next day appeases it with a meeting which neither nourishes
nor avails against hunger.... But Trump is not concerned of appeasing Europe, instead
he yells in the face of Europe like nothing! And doesn't care about their
reactions despite their severity. French president Hollande said about Trump:
“He makes you want to retch" and the British Foreign Secretary Boris
Johnson described him as a "clearly out of his mind". Italy’s Prime
Minister Renzi considered Trump a man "who invests a lot in a policy of
fear". The European Parliament President Martin Schulz, said "Trump
is not just a problem for the EU, but for the whole world."...) (Asharq Al
Awsat, 11/11/2016). German Defence Minister Ursula von der Leyen addressed
Trump through the German TV Z.D.F. on 11/11/2016 in response to Trump's
statement that Washington's involvement alongside its European allies if they
were attacked by Russia, contingent on the European financial contributions to
the alliance's budget, saying: “This is not something where someone can say:
‘The past does not matter to me. The values that we champion together do not
matter to me, but instead try to get as much money out of it (NATO) as possible...’
NATO is not a business, it is not a company...” (Reuters, 10/11/2016)
-
Obama relies on Russia for its brutal attacks on Syria, but he declares to be against
Russia's brutal attacks...! From the aspect of bluffing and trickery to the
opposition... but Trump depends on Russia in broad daylight and praises Putin and
even puts him ahead of his president Obama and his rival Clinton! He says, “Putin
has been a leader far more than our president [Obama] has been...” (BBC,
14/11/2016)... Trump added that Putin has outsmarted Clinton, he has outsmarted
her in Syria... (Sky News Arabic, 10/20/2016). Thus, Obama and Trump both deal
with Russia to serve the interests of America but with different styles helped
by Russia’s inferiority complex to become a European or a Western country and to
return a superpower and restore glory to the era of the Soviet Union. Russia's
parliament erupted in applause upon the announcement of Trump’s victory, which
confirms the severity of the Russian stupidity!
From
all of the aforementioned, it shows that the broad outlines of the US politics
do not differ between the Republican Party and the Democratic Party, but the styles
vary.
4.
The reason for this is attributed to the background of the emergence of the two
parties. The Republican Party does not care much to appear in the democratic
impressions that they loud-mouth, but is predominated by a cowboy attitude saturated
with arrogance and it has emerged from this milieu and still it prevails it... And
the cowboy culture tends to the person who shows strength, beats and kills the
other, blows up here and there, and spoil this and steals that and no one can oppose
or challenge him, but should keep silent and surrender. Nor do they care about
the crimes of killing innocent people, as they are prevalent in their country,
and they love to bear arms and use them as fancies. The US Senate rejected on Monday
a proposal of the Democratic Party that allows expanding investigations of the criminal
and psychological history for those interested in purchasing individual weapons...
(and the Republicans voted on Monday, 20/06/2016 against this measure, which
Democrats are trying to pass for years, and vote result was 44 with and 56 against
the proposal...) (Russia Today, 21/06/2016). Thus, the Republicans do not care
about the regulation of gun possession because of the control of producers and
arms dealers lobby on the Republican... From this standpoint Trump’s style
comes, for it is the style of the man who appears like a strong man and his country
is powerful to regain its prestige through threats and extortion, whether he implements
them or not and retracts and resorts to another style. For he is like how he
said, "I want to be unpredictable." (Reuters 10/11/2016). Thus, he
will resort to intimidating others to make them accept the American policy or surrender
to it or fear opposing it, thus his remarks came floundering in four
directions! It was clear his hatred of Islam and Muslims... and went down in
China square... did not escape from him his followers in South Korea, Saudi
Arabia and Iran... and he strongly and provocatively attacked Europe as if he
deliberately does that! This is in terms of the style of arrogance... but he will
also use the traders’ scammers style where he will blackmail other nations and
want to win and make others pay America the costs and more. Therefore, it came
in his remarks:
-
Saudi Arabia is a rich country and they should pay for what they get from us in
politics and security. He said, “Saudi Arabia is going to be in big trouble
pretty soon, and they are going to need help, if it weren’t for us, they
wouldn’t be here, they wouldn’t exist.” (NBC TV, 19/ 8/2016) in a move to
blackmailing it and takes all its deposits in America, especially since
Congress passed a law called Gasta that forces Saudi Arabia to pay compensation
to the Americans on the of 9/11 in 2001 events in the World Trade Center in New
York.
-
Trump said during his campaign that he wants to withdraw US troops stationed in
South Korea as the last did not pay a greater share of the cost of the
deployment of these forces, which has a population of 28,500 US troops in joint
defense against North Korea framework.
-
He asked Europe to pay more in the NATO budget, and said that ("NATO is
obsolete," and pointed out that Washington's involvement alongside its
European allies if they were attacked by Russia, contingent on European
financial contributions to the alliance's budget.) (AFP... Khaleej Newspaper,
11/11/2016 CE)
-
With regards to the climate, he said, “Environmental constraints on the
companies making them less competitive in the global market, and he described
climate change as hoax.” Thus, the extent of the financial blackmail that Trump
seeks even with his clients and followers becomes apparent!
5.
Whereas, the Democratic Party is predominated by deception, appearing in the
false democratic impressions and imitating the English style. It provides
poison enveloped with fake fat, and kills you with a smile, while the
Republican party offers the pure poison, so it kills you while biting on its
teeth... Democratic presidents therefore are better able to deceit and win the
trust of dupes, whereas Republican presidents do not deceive anyone because
their enmity is blatantly declared. This can be seen when reviewing people’s vision
of examples of not-so-distant history of Presidents of both parties; thus, Reagan,
Nixon, Bush Senior and Junior from the Republican party and their arrogance
especially towards Islam and Muslims in an exposed provocative
aggressive manner and their fangs are prominent... and Kennedy, Carter, Clinton
and Obama from the Democratic Party and their cunningness, deceit and guile to
Islam and Muslims and their grins are transparent... Mr. Bush utters by the
crusade war whereas Clinton cites a Quranic verse in Cairo... and both are
plotting a scheme against Islam...! That is just as we said earlier: "Democratic
presidents therefore better able to deceive and win the trust of dupes, whereas
Republican presidents do not deceive anyone because their enmity is blatantly
declared."
6.
Even in the logo of the two parties, there is a difference in connotation, fits
what we have said. Since the American cartoonist - German origin - Thomas Nast
in (1870 and 1874), published a drawing in Harper's Magazine showing a picture
of a donkey wearing a lion’s body to scare a group of animals, among them a
giant wild elephant that smashes his surroundings... Since then the donkey has
become the Democratic party logo, and the elephant became the logo of the
Republican party, and the two logos reflect the image of the two parties. Thus,
it was circulated during the election campaign in 2008, two images that show in
the first a donkey embodying the Democratic party logo, ridden by a woman in yellow
dress symbolizing Hillary Clinton, and behind her a black young man symbolizing
Barack Obama, and each one of them offers a carrot to a donkey tied at the tip
of a long stick, which was an expression of the time for an election based on a
"carrot and stick" strategy of the Democratic party. In contrast,
another image appeared in the same campaign which highlighted the two
candidates, too, in reference to the time of John McCain and Mitt Romney - a
Republican – riding an elephant (representing the party logo) and both of them were
beating it with sticks symbolizing the conservative Republican politics that
rely on the "firmness and force."
Thus
the actions of Trump are not a new innovation of the actions of the Republican
candidates, except to the extent of personal characteristics that distinguish a
person from another, but the general characteristics of the Republican Party
remains almost applicable to all the party's candidates with the exception of
personal characteristics as mentioned above.
In
Conclusion:
A. The
broad outlines of US policy established in the era of the former president does
not change any significantly, especially towards Islam and Muslims, and more
specifically towards the Syrian crisis, whether the president is a Republican
or a Democrat, because the American policy is determined by institutions, each
with some of influence that increases or decreases …
B. The electoral statements are not a measure for
the practical implementation of international relations, or solutions to
external problems …
C. America will continue to use Russia in its war
on Muslims who revolted against its systems and its regimes. As well as to use it
to counter Europe, because it wants to limit the rebellion Europeans as it
considers them as its younger brothers and itself is the big brother, and to stop
them from distracting its projects and policies and in the areas of its influence,
and their independent work outside its will and its umbrella and their attempt
to form a political, military and economic independent force.
D. Among
the new administration’s styles are intimidation, ridiculing and attacking on
those who it counts enemies, as well as practicing arrogance and haughtiness.
Therefore, the best approach for other countries which respect themselves is
not to comply and not to succumb to its pressure and not to fear its threats
for they are all but a storm in a teacup. Instead, they should proceed in
defiance of America and confront it and work to remove it from the area. This is
because when America was in its peak during Bush Jr. era, France formed an axis
with other nations to oppose America and it was able to affect it, so how about
today when it is declining to the bottom?!
E. It
seems that the US administration headed by Trump will use extortion as it
seemed to compel states to pay, for it is left with no other trick but this. In
this case, the other states should not surrender to its blackmail and to excite
the public against it.
F. As
for the revolting people of the Islamic Ummah who are a grand and solid thorn
in the throat of America, haunting it and does not let it sleep quietly, they
should continue their revolution and struggle, and they are victorious, bi'ithnillah,
over America and on all the colonial powers. For they have rubbed its nose in
the sands of Iraq and the soil of Afghanistan... and they should know that
America is weaker than the spider house, it has worn and eroded, and is
tapering towards the fall. However, the Ummah must be caution of the American agents,
the followers and the subordinates, for they are the gates for America in the
Muslim lands... And that the Ummah should head toward the conscious sincere
people who will lead it, bi'ithnillah Allah, to the salvation, the liberation
and the glory, and returns back as it was holding the glory from its two
pillars:
﴿كُنْتُمْ
خَيْرَ أُمَّةٍ أُخْرِجَتْ لِلنَّاسِ تَأْمُرُونَ بِالْمَعْرُوفِ وَتَنْهَوْنَ
عَنِ الْمُنْكَرِ وَتُؤْمِنُونَ بِاللَّهِ﴾ “You were the best
nations ever to be raised for mankind: you enjoin what is right (ma’roof),
forbid what is wrong (munkar), and believe in Allah.” [Al-i-Imran: 110]
«... ثُمَّ تَكُونُ جَبْرِيَّةً، فَتَكُونُ مَا شَاءَ اللَّهُ أَنْ
تَكُونَ، ثُمَّ يَرْفَعُهَا إِذَا شَاءَ أَنْ يَرْفَعَهَا، ثُمَّ تَكُونُ
خِلَافَةٌ عَلَى مِنْهَاجِ النُّبُوَّةِ» “Then
there will be an oppressive rule, and it will last for as long as Allah wishes,
then He will lift it if He wishes. Then there will be Khilafah according to the
method of Prophethood.” (Narrated by Abu Dawood Tayaalisi)...
And that is no great matter for Allah.
18th
Safar 1438 AH
18/11/2016
CE
Comments